Summary Poland considering donating remaining MiG-29s to Ukraine to boost air force capability Need for Western air defense systems for Ukraine, focus on protecting airspace and new arrivals Long-term goal for Ukraine is Western fighter jets; limited F-16s already there, Mirage 2000-5s to come Poland has been one of the strongest Ukrainian backers and has already donated half its legacy MiG-29 Fulcrum fleet . It is now possible that Poland will soon donate its remaining 15 or so MiG-29s to Ukraine. The first F-16s are now flying in Ukraine , but it will be a long time before Ukraine is able to transition fully from Soviet jets.
According to Forbes , this has the potential to bring Ukraine's MiG-29 fleet back up to full strength. This is a remarkable achievement and further underscores how badly Russia's 2.5-year-long invasion has backfired.
Poland open to donating remaining MiG-29s Polish MiGs were discussed in a recent meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelansky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Donald Tusk stated, “ We cannot simply hand over the MiGs immediately because they are currently performing air policing duties .” A Forbes article notes that it shouldn't be an issue for NATO countries to provide more fighter cover for Poland to cover the gap until the new jets arrive.
Poland is believed to have around 15 MiG-29s left in use. While it takes many months for Ukrainian pilots and maintainers to be trained and new logistics networks to be set up for Ukraine to receive Western fighter jets, MiG-29s can be given at any time. Ukraine has always operated the aircraft and has pilots and skilled personnel to operate and maintain them.
"NATO routinely shuffles around fighter squadrons from its bigger members—the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, among others—to patrol the sky over its smaller members. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania don’t even have fighter jets, and have always been patrolled by planes from allied countries." - Forbes Forbes notes that Ukraine's most urgent requirement is air defense (like IRIS-T, SAMP-T, and Patriot SAMs) to protect its air space and to protect the aircraft it has and any new aircraft that arrive.
Recent months have seen Russia finally targeting and destroying a limited number of Ukrainian aircraft on the ground (something they had previously proven very ineffective at). The Russian Air Force continues to operate three MiG-29 multirole variants and the fast MiG-31 interceptor. The mighty Polish rearmament The February 2022 invasion was a watershed moment for Poland.
Before 2022, most of its air force and ground forces equipment was aging Soviet-era equipment (although some Western equipment was on order). Poland has turbo-charged its transition to become a powerful modern Western fighting force. While Poland has cleared out much of its old Soviet-era stock, it can only donate so much before new Western and South Korean replacements arrive.
The fact that there is discussion about Poland sending the last of its MiG-29s probably indicates that Poland has now received enough fighters (probably South Korean T-50 Golden Eagle light fighters) that it feels it can part with the old jets (at least if other countries also help bridge the gap). Poland has 32 F-35As on order, but they will take years to become fully operational. At the beginning of August, Lockheed stated that the first Polish F-35A is now receiving its finishing touches before rolling out.
In particular, Poland is hard at work building the largest and most powerful ground force in the European Union. Poland is expected to spend 4.2% of GDP on defense in 2024 and an astonishing 5% in 2025.
For reference, the minimum target for NATO members is 2% of GDP, while the US is spending around 2.9% of GDP on defense in 2024. A stop-gap measure for the embattled Ukrainian Air Force As Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Western world rallied behind Ukraine.
Ukraine's limited aging fleet of legacy Soviet jets put up a plucky fight, but without resupply, it was only a matter of when, not if, it would be ground down. At first, parts were sent to Ukraine to keep its aircraft operational and to restore to old airframes. Then Poland and Slovakia donated their aging MiG-29s (Poland donated around half of its fleet).
Over the course of the war, Poland and Slovakia donated 27 MiG-29s (including all the combat jets Slovakia had). However, some of these were only delivered at a source of spare parts. It is also unknown how many undocumented losses Ukraine has sustained and how many aircraft may be grounded from wear and tear.
That said, it is also possible that Ukraine has been able to restore old air frames, like it has Su-24s. In February 2024, Forbes also suggested that Ukraine may have more than overcome its losses and have more Su-24 Fencers flying now than before the war, thanks to reactivating old airframes. It is thought that Ukraine started the war with around 50 MiG-29s.
But these have suffered a terrible toll. Many were lost at the start of the war, and many more have been lost in the grinding attrition since then. According to the Oyrx blog , Ukraine is now visually confirmed to have lost 30 MiG-29s as of the 8th of August 2024.
Retired French jets will arrive in Ukraine by the end of 2024 after only 5 to 6 months of pilot training. Western jets are the long-term answer The long-term solution for the Ukrainian Air Force is Western fighter jets. The first ten F-16 Fighting Falcons finally arrived in Ukraine on the last day of July.
Another ten may arrive by the end of the year. The remaining pledged F-16s will be slowly drip-fed to Ukraine in the coming years, with the last Belgian ones arriving by 2028. Additionally, the French have pledged an unspecified number of Mirage 2000-5 jets while France is to take delivery of five non-operational Dassault Super-Étendard jets from Argentina to be restored and sent to Ukraine.
There are also ongoing discussions about supplying Swedish Saab Gripens to Ukraine. Hovering over these potential transfers is a concern about the pressure felt by Ukrainian logistics in handling so many types of new aircraft at once. There is the potential for more Western fighter jets to be sent to Ukraine down the road - including retiring Greek F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s .
For now, even with the new F-16s trickling in, legacy Soviet jets like the MiG-29 remain a plug-and-play stop-gap measure to keep the Ukrainian Air Force flying..
