In politics, summer offers a chance for reflection. With both Westminster and Holyrood in recess, there's an opportunity for some strategic thinking, away from the political fray. And Scotland's party leaders have a lot to ponder.
Next month will mark 10 years since the independence referendum. As a young journalist, fresh in the door, I was only tangentially involved in covering it, but it remains one of the most electrifying experiences of my career. Such events cast long shadows, and the constitution has defined Scottish politics ever since.
Almost every issue has been viewed through a Yes/No prism. It has dominated elections and provided endless fodder for newspaper columns. But could we be entering a new era? The SNP will gather in Edinburgh for its 90th annual national conference at the end of this month, still smarting from a humiliating general election result that saw the party drop from 48 MPs in 2019 to just nine.
John Swinney, the First Minister and SNP leader, has said the nationalists need to “take stock”. Writing in the pages of The Scotsman, former MP Stewart McDonald called for a "deeper reckoning" . Independence, he said, is not on the "immediate horizon".
The days of Nicola Sturgeon standing behind a podium and announcing October 19, 2023, as the date for a second referendum feel like a very long time ago indeed. Kirsty Blackman, one of the nine SNP MPs to keep her seat, largely dodged questions about the future direction of her party when appearing at an Edinburgh Fringe event over the weekend. "I'm sure there are cleverer people than me who can decide what our policy direction is,” she told Iain Dale's All Talk show.
“But on a day-to-day basis, what I would tell all of our MSPs, what I would tell all of our representatives, what I would tell every representative, is listen to people who live in your area and do everything you can to solve all the problems they have.” Asked if there should be a "de-emphasis" on independence, Ms Blackman, who represents Aberdeen North, said the media held some responsibility. "Sometimes the media swings us towards only talking about independence, when actually there's a huge amount all the parties have to offer - we disagree with each other on it - but there's a huge amount of other policies that we've all got to offer,” she said.
It’s not just the SNP, of course. The Scottish Tories are also in need of some serious soul-searching. The party is looking for a new leader after Douglas Ross announced his intention to resign in the middle of the general election campaign.
Six MSPs are vying for the top job, and all stress the need for change. The party has long relied on its unionist credentials. But Andrew Bowie, one of five Tory MPs north of the border, said the shift away from constitutional politics leaves it with a challenge.
Appearing at the same event as Ms Blackman, he said: "I couldn't even tell you what was in the last Scottish Conservative manifesto, because the focus was solely on beating the SNP and No to another independence referendum. We rammed that down everybody's throats, and everybody knew, across a lot of Scotland, that we were the strongest alternative. But we have to come up with something different now.
" Labour, meanwhile, is eyeing up Bute House. With the party in power in Westminster, Scottish leader Anas Sarwar will head into the 2026 Holyrood election with the goal of becoming the first Labour first minister for almost two decades. Labour has long sought to pull the national debate away from independence.
It may finally have got its wish. Michael Shanks, the Labour MP for Rutherglen, told the All Talk show at the weekend that 2026 will be “a referendum” on the SNP’s time in power. He said it was “really clear” people were “absolutely fed up” of the SNP Government.
At the risk of stating the obvious, Holyrood elections are not Westminster elections. Nationalists are fond of pointing to the 2010 general election, in which the SNP won just six seats; the following year, the party secured its remarkable Holyrood majority, paving the way for the referendum in 2014. Nevertheless, the latest Scottish Social Attitudes Survey must have struck fear into the hearts of SNP ministers.
It found trust in the Scottish Government at an all-time low. A move away from constitutional politics will leave the SNP defending a record many Scots are evidently less than impressed by, while Labour once again bangs the drum for change. There are other factors at play, too.
Will Nigel Farage’s Reform UK secure any MSPs? What about Alex Salmond’s Alba Party? The former first minister would relish a return to Holyrood, and has already announced his intention to stand in Banffshire and Buchan Coast. The second Scottish Parliament, elected in 2003, was known as the “Rainbow Parliament” due to its broad mix of political parties and views. Might we see something similar in 2026? No one expects the constitution to disappear from view entirely.
Around half the country still support independence, and it will remain the SNP’s raison d'etre. Even those opposed to separation recognise the issue will return. Mr Bowie said there will "undoubtedly" be another referendum at some point in the future, and Mr Shanks agreed.
But if it recedes into the distance, the void it leaves in the present will force a reshaping of Scottish politics. New ideas and strategies will be required, alongside fresh faces to champion them. From independence to Brexit, from Covid to Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, recent years have been something of a political rollercoaster.
Covering it as a journalist has been fascinating, fun and occasionally frightening. One thing is for certain: the twists and turns are far from over..
