For several weeks now, we have often heard talk of changes in strategy or reversals of direction on the electric transition; Sweden's Volvo is just the latest, in chronological order, to make statements on the subject. But is this really the case? Are manufacturers, who have invested billions and concentrated enormous efforts in a few years to convert to electric or start the process, really ready to backtrack? Not exactly: let us therefore shed some light by analysing the new plans brand by brand. General Motors Ford Volvo Volkswagen Mercedes Jaguar Land Rover Renault Optimistic forecasts The biggest wake-up call comes, as always, from the market: sales of electric cars in most countries are growing less than expected, even where they seemed to be off to a good start.
Even China, the scene of the latest boom, is recording more modest increases than expected. The defect is not so much in the vision, which even the world's leading manufacturers have shared (some more, some less), but in the timing . The goal of completely or almost completely wiping out traditional engines from the ranges and the market between 2030 and 2035 is perhaps proving to be hasty, because the sales trend is not progressing as expected.
Electric vehicle sales: forecast for 2024 Contributing to this is the generalised crisis in sales, which is being driven by rising prices and a reduction in the purchasing power of households, especially in low-income brackets . A scenario in which electric vehicles, which are still proportionately more expensive than conventional ones, are not advantaged, despite incentives and concessions. A still immature market The problem lies in the fact that manufacturers have not yet succeeded in bringing truly affordable products onto the market.
The need to recoup huge investments and safeguard profit margins, together with the initial cost of the technologies, have prompted manufacturers to start with vehicles in the medium-high segment and positioning, which are, however, also those in which electric propulsion shows its limits the most, given that the yardstick for comparison is traditional cars suitable for long distances. Cheap electric cars To put it simply, there is a lack of small and cheap electric cars, or at least more affordable ones, which to all intents and purposes are only just beginning to arrive with models such as the Renault 5 , Citroën e-C3 , Fiat Grande Panda , Volkswagen ID.2 and so on.
How manufacturer's agendas change Having said that, manufacturers are not contemplating a real about-face, but are revising their statements of three years ago, when most had announced a total switch to electric in their ranges by the end of this decade or the middle of next. Today, however, many are beginning to retract by talking about a more gradual transition, with an increase in the hybrid offering and a lengthening of the timeframe, which, however, will still have to lead to the target. Mary Barra, CEO of GM General Motors The first to become more tepid about the conversion to electric are the American giants.
GM has revised both its production plans, scaling back its estimates for 2024 from 300,000 to 250,000 vehicles, and delayed the launches of some new cars. The CEO Mary Barra recently spoke of the intention to focus on plug-in hybrids for the North American market as well. Specifically, the Cadillac brand was planning to electrify the majority or almost the majority of its range by 2030, while today Vice President John Roth announced that combustion engines could remain available beyond that date.
Ford F-150 Lightning Ford Even Ford , after having played an early lead in the prolific pick-up sector with its F-150 Lightning , now seems to want to focus its attention on expanding its hybrid engine offering and, in the meantime, postpones the launch of other full-size electrics , which should have been imminent, to 2026-2027. Volvo Even those who seem to have embraced electric power with a convincing formula like Volvo are not safe from second thoughts. The goal of a 'full electric' range from 2030 is now under discussion, as the company makes it known that its market mix will no longer include 100 per cent BEVs (battery electric vehicles), but at least 90 per cent, so that the remaining 10 per cent can allow 'the sale of a limited number of mild hybrid models, if necessary'.
Volkswagen ID.2all Volkswagen The Volkswagen Group and brand are investing in plug-in hybrids, which seem to have become the most popular in North America and China. According to market estimates for the USA and Canada, the Wolfsburg company is expected to make 55% of the sales mix electric by the end of the decade, and for Europe as much as 80% , but these estimates could now be scaled back considerably.
Even Porsche , which recently introduced the historic first electrified engine in the 911 , is not getting all the satisfaction it expected from its electric range. The plan to move 80% of sales to zero emissions remains, but the 2030 deadline falls. Mercedes EQS Mercedes As for Mercedes , it had made one of the most shocking statements in 2021, announcing its intention to introduce only electric models from 2026 and to end production of all non-electric models by 2030.
However, Stuttgart itself was quick to point out that this plan would be implemented 'if the market allowed it', and today we know that the EQ family , especially in the upper range, is suffering from a sales crisis. Teaser Jaguar XJ Jaguar Land Rover For Jaguar Land Rover, the electrification plan is still partly shrouded in mystery. The brand from Solihull is more "open" and linear, having started with the Range Rover EV and plans a second model for 2025 , while Jaguar, which has announced a radical switch to electric from 2026, has not yet clearly confirmed which models it intends to launch and from when.
Staying on the subject of luxury brands, even Bentley , despite having the Volkswagen Group behind it, has still taken some time. The first EV, initially planned for 2025, will instead only arrive two years later. In the meantime, rivals Rolls-Royce's have already introduced the Spectre , but they are not yet talking about ending the reign of 8- and 12-cylinder engines.
Renault Talk: Luca De Meo explains the group's future together with managers Renault Even those who, like Renault, are writing the history of the electric car are showing some hesitation, despite the fact that the long-awaited Renault 5 is finally on its way, which will be followed by two other models ( R4 and Twingo ) in the more affordable segments of the market. CEO Luca De Meo admits that full electrification may not arrive by 2030 as announced, and perhaps not even by 2035 (barring European regulations). The effects are already being felt:.
