Choosing Connor McDavid ’s linemates can get an Edmonton Oilers coach in trouble. The August 2020 decision to place Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on McDavid’s wing still echoes among fans who were convinced Nugent-Hopkins was most effective on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto . That trio smoked the opposition from January 2020 to the shutdown from the pandemic.
Advertisement Coach Kris Knoblauch may face some pushback from fans this fall if he decides to break up the current No. 1 line. Ironically, McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins are together on the line, with relentless goal scorer Zach Hyman a vital member of the trio.
On the other hand, many fans would like to see new arrival Jeff Skinner on the top line with the captain. Skinner is a volume shooter and a player who is perfectly suited as the finisher on a high-octane scoring line. Is Skinner and Hyman a better option than Nugent-Hopkins with Hyman? Let’s have a look.
McDavid scoring with current teammates Over the past three seasons, McDavid has enjoyed great success with several linemates. Here are his scoring numbers in those seasons. All numbers five-on-five This should come as no surprise.
The captain can score with any linemate. He has made millionaires out of many men. Notable in this look at the scoring numbers over the last three seasons is the trio of top-flight linemates: Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl are all money on the No.
1 line. Let’s look at those three players and how well each scored in the last three seasons while playing on the top line with 97. All numbers five-on-five There are no surprises here, Draisaitl is an impact player and Hyman has enormous chemistry with McDavid.
Nugent-Hopkins, who is a complementary scorer, shows well here although he fades against this level of competition. Should the coach move Skinner up to the top line, replacing Nugent-Hopkins? Skinner’s offence Skinner is 32 and remains a substantial NHL goal scorer. In his three most recent seasons, he has scored a total of 92 goals.
That’s an outstanding total in today’s NHL. At five-on-five, his most common centre in those three seasons was Tage Thompson . In 1,983 minutes with the big pivot, Skinner scored 1.
24 goals per 60 and 2.69 points per 60. Overall, Skinner posted 1.
25 goals per 60 and 2.61 points per 60 including all five-on-five linemates. Advertisement There is no major gap in performance between the Thompson minutes and overall minutes.
Skinner, like McDavid, is a brilliant five-on-five scorer no matter who is on his line. There are other impressive numbers, all at five-on-five. Skinner shot the puck a ton over the last three seasons with the Buffalo Sabres .
He averaged 10.2 shots per 60, a total that was eclipsed by only Evander Kane among Oilers in the same seasons, via Natural Stat Trick . He finished top 20 in the NHL in shots per 60 five-on-five over the last three seasons.
It’s likely Skinner will increase the total if he spends an entire season on the No. 1 line with McDavid. His 12.
4 shooting percentage landed him in the top 80 forwards over the three-year period. What’s the problem? There are three issues that might impact Skinner’s time on the top line. The coaching staff may decide not to fix what isn’t broken.
The top line (Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman with McDavid) scored 4.37 goals per 60 at five-on-five one year ago. That’s an impact line.
Even more impressive, the trio owned a mind-boggling 63 percent goal share when on the ice. A coach who turns away from that combination runs some risk if things don’t work out with the new alignment. Fans in Edmonton have long memories for successful line combinations (ask about Todd Marchant with Mike Grier and Ethan Moreau and an Oilers fan can talk for an hour; they played in Edmonton 25 years ago) and the controversy over the 2020 line shakeup still rages on.
The second area for Knoblauch to worry over is the No. 2 line. Draisaitl will be the centre, with deadline pickup Adam Henrique and new addition Viktor Arvidsson also available.
If Nugent-Hopkins is moved off the top line, he could also help the second unit (with Henrique slotting in as third-line centre). Skinner is the purest offensive addition to the roster this summer, the ultimate finisher. Those cherry backhand passes from Draisaitl could be beautiful and plentiful if the coach pairs the two talented forwards in 2024-25.
Advertisement The final area is outscoring. The Oilers are a rock-solid unit at five-on-five and delivered a 56 percent goal share, the fifth-best total in the NHL one year ago. The Sabres were 52 percent, good for No.
12 among the 32 NHL teams. Skinner’s goal share (55 percent) was better than the team average, but his expected goal share was 47 percent. That suggests he was playing in some good luck and his actual level of ability in this area may not be a strength.
Puck IQ bins levels of competition for each player. Skinner played 308 minutes against elites, or about 32 percent of his overall five-on-five minutes. Puck IQ tells us the coaching staff rolled at least two lines about evenly against elite competition, so it’s safe to call Skinner a middle-six winger against the league’s best competition.
In those moments, he helped his team to a 48 goal share but his Dangerous Fenwick (similar to expected goals) was a little below average relative to his fellow Sabres forwards. Against mid- and lower-level competition, Skinner was above 50 percent and owned a 34-24 edge in goals at five-on-five. Skinner on the McDavid line Should Skinner play on the McDavid line? The answer is there is no bad answer for Knoblauch and the Oilers.
It’s probable the coaches will not be able to resist trying Skinner-McDavid-Hyman and there’s every chance that trio will score even more than last year’s line. One of the keys for Edmonton this coming season is to ice several outscoring lines. Draisaitl with Nugent-Hopkins has worked in the past, and adding Arvidsson gives the second line some impressive torque not available one year ago.
Including Henrique, Dylan Holloway , Corey Perry and (when healthy) Kane, this team should have three legit lines that can put fear in the hearts of opponents. McDavid or Draisaitl, Skinner can’t lose if he stays healthy and brings those impressive scoring skills west. It could be historic.
Bet on Skinner winning the day with McDavid. He’s a pure goal scorer about to enter the promised land for his player type. (Photo of Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman: Claus Andersen / Getty Images).
