Summary Many legacy 777 operators have yet to place an order for Boeing's 777X. Billed as a quadjet replacement, the 777-9 is too big for many airlines. The Airbus A350 has become a formidable competitor, creating some high-profile defectors.
Simple Flying recently looked at the airlines that have ordered the 777X , their motivations for doing so, and the likely impact on their fleets. It became clear that the 503 orders for the Boeing 777X to date are likely below expectations, lagging both the orders for its predecessor, the Boeing 777-300ER, and well behind the competing Airbus A350 , which has over 1,300 orders to date. There could be multiple reasons for this, not least the well-publicized challenges that Boeing has endured in testing and certifying the 777X that have led to at least a 5-year delay.
But what impact has the A350 had on traditional 777 territory, and is it possible that nearly 2,000 orders for the Boeing 787 are also cannibalizing its larger stablemate? The best way to understand these issues is to take a closer look at legacy Boeing 777 customers who have not ordered the 777X. Boeing currently has 503 total 777X orders from 13 named airlines and some as-yet unidentified customers. They’re just not that into you There are fourteen airlines that have placed an order for the 777X (13 named and one unnamed).
There are also fourteen airlines that have purchased 15 or more B777s (of all variants) in the past but have not placed a 777X order yet. As outlined in the table below, these legacy B777 carriers accounted for 642 historical B777 orders. Airline Boeing 777s in Fleet Competitive Orders United Airlines 96 Airbus A350 (45) | Boeing 787 (221) Air France-KLM 94 Airbus A350 (92) | Boeing 787 (26) American Airlines 67 Boeing 787 (84) Saudia 62 Boeing 787 (55) Japan Airlines 46 Airbus A350 (51) | Boeing 787 (53) Turkish Airlines 41 Airbus A350 (110) | Boeing 787 (30) EVA Air 40 Airbus A350 (18) | Boeing 787 (24) China Southern 39 Airbus A350 (20) | Boeing 787 (19) Air China 38 Airbus A350 (30) | Boeing 787 (14) Thai Airways 38 Airbus A350 (4) | Boeing 787 (45) Air Canada 25 Boeing 787 (57) China Eastern 20 Airbus A350 (20) | Boeing 787 (10) Delta Air Lines 19 Airbus A350 (75) Malaysia Airlines 17 Airbus A350 (6) The table also notes the A350 and B787 orders that each carrier has placed in recent years.
At first glance, it seems that while Boeing has been fighting its testing and certification demons, many carriers have moved on to alternatives and are unlikely to be 777X customers anytime soon. But let's explore this in more detail. What is the purpose of each 777X variant? The 777X program has two passenger and one freighter variants.
The passenger variants are: 777-9: Set to become the largest commercial aircraft in production, it seats 426 passengers in a typical 2-class layout and has a range of 7,285 nmi (13,500 km; 8,400 mi). Its larger size has been billed as the ideal replacement for the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380. 777-8: Smaller but with greater range, it seats 395 passengers in a typical 2-class layout and has a range of 8,745 nmi (16,200 km; 10,100 mi).
This makes it a more precise replacement for the B777-300ER, which seats 392 in a two-class layout. However, questions remain around the assumptions for these replacement plans, not to mention other macro factors that make today’s competitive environment for wide-bodies very different from when the B777 had its initial success. Replacing quad-jets has limited runway The Boeing 777 program as a whole has been immensely successful, with over 1,800 of the -200 and -300 variants sold to date.
Much of this success was driven by the fact that the B777 was the most suitable replacement for the more fuel-thirsty tri-jets and quad-jets such as the DC-10, MD-11, B747, and A340. In fact, the B777's success was so great that it hastened the demise of all of these types. Today, there are less than 90 B747s and 70 A340s in active passenger service.
This also means that the 777-9 has far less opportunity for quad-jet replacement than its B777 predecessors. Of course, there are also the Airbus A380s that most carriers are keen to replace, but take a look at the existing 777X order book: Emirates, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa, British Airways, and more. Every airline that still needs to dispose of its quad-jets, especially A380s, has already placed 777X orders.
Carriers that have already retired their quad-jets are looking the other way. Replacing the B777-300ER is still some way off Another case for the 777X program is that it is the natural replacement for the B777-300ER. After all, the 777-8 is very similar in terms of size and capacity, so this makes logical sense.
But this rationale doesn’t appear to translate into market reality, with only 43 orders for the variant. It is easy to see why. Look at the largest legacy B777 carriers that have not ordered the 777X, and the average age of their B777-300ER fleets: United (6.
8 years), Thai Airlines (9.4 years), Saudia (10.0 years), American Airlines (10.
6 years), and Turkish Airlines and EVA Air (both 11.3 years). Going by replacement trends of the original -200 variant, these -300ER aircraft still have a decade or more of flying to do with their current owners, so the 777-8 replacing them in any great numbers doesn’t look realistic until well into the next decade.
Too big for the multi-hub business model Then there is the reality that the 777-9 is just too big for many of the largest airlines, which won’t be purchasing it for the same reasons they avoided the A380 and B747-8. Take United Airlines as a prime example. A long-time B777 operator, it hasn’t ordered the 777X.
This is because it has found smaller wide-bodies like the B787 to be more advantageous. As Patrick Quayle, SVP of global network planning at United, explains: "We think the 777X will be a very good airplane, but it is also very big. It is perfect for a hub-and-spoke network, where all traffic is out and back through these massive connecting complexes.
Given our structure, where we serve the same destinations from multiple hubs, we find a smaller widebody is far better. It’s the same reason American, Delta, and United didn't order the 747-8 or the A380, because our traffic is fragmented.” As a result, United is now the world’s largest operator of the B787, utilizing all three variants for size-appropriate missions.
Glance back at the table above, and it is immediately apparent that American Airlines, Air Canada, and Saudia have come to that exact same conclusion and with the exact same aircraft. A formidable competitor There is also the uncomfortable reality for Boeing that unlike when the first B777 variants were launched, the 777X faces a formidable competitor in the form of the Airbus A350. It might be slightly smaller than the 777X variants, but many airlines see that as a positive, along with its range and efficiency advantages.
But its biggest advantage is that with over 600 in service already, the A350 is something that the 777X is still a long way from becoming: a proven success and money-maker for the airlines that operate it. That is a very big deal for airlines that want quick returns from their capital investments and none of the risk and delays associated with Boeing production of late. Small wonder then that the list above includes a number of high-profile “churners” - very large airlines that have replaced their B777 fleets with A350s: Delta Air Lines was one of the first after its very public falling out with Boeing over the A220 program, and today it only operates Airbus widebodies.
SkyTeam partner, Air France , is also on record saying that its huge A350 order will replace B777s as they age. Like Delta, Japan Airlines retired its older B777s during the pandemic and switched to the A350 as its new flagship. Turkish Airlines is in the middle of receiving a massive order of 110 A350s, with zero orders for the 777X.
When it comes to factors such as capacity, cost, and range, which of the two widebody aircraft will come out on top? Still hope for the 777X program However, all is not lost for Boeing. The 777X does have some notable advantages for potential customers, not least those that want to maintain fleet commonality to lower operational costs and pilot hiring and training needs. It also advertises a significantly lower carbon footprint, an advantage to airlines that need to meet emissions goals.
Ultimately, with a smaller order book, it will also have the advantage of offering more favorable product slot availability. But to get to that point and truly compete, it will require exceptional execution from the Boeing team from hereon out. That means sailing through its certification testing and getting the aircraft into the hands of first customers as soon as possible.
Most importantly, it means getting through the first few years of operation without a hitch, building confidence in the aircraft among customers right as they near their B777-300ER replacement windows. Can Boeing pull that off? We shall see. It has remained unclear whether this will affect the entry-into-service date of the Boeing 777X.
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