As the new American president shook allied capitals all over the world, a Virginia-class submarine — the USS Minnesota — arrived at a port in western Australia for the first of many routine Australian port visits slated for American submarines this year. It seemed like a positive signal for the U.S.
-Australian alliance. And, despite uncertainty over America’s commitments, officials in the Trump administration have praised the AUKUS security compact. Still, these are the only sorts of Virginia-class submarines Australians should expect to arrive on their shores anytime soon: visiting American submarines crewed by Americans.
Despite the promises of the first and core pillar of the AUKUS security compact, the United States simply won’t have enough Virginia-class submarines to spare. To make matters worse, the SSN AUKUS — meant to be Australia’s long-term solution — is likely to encounter significant delays and issues, similar to Britain’s past submarine programs, due to challenges in design maturity, production capacity, and technical complexities, making it an unreliable solution for Australia’s submarine needs. Faced with a stark reality, it is time for Australia to reconsider its options.
Background As readers of War on the Rocks likely remember, in September 2021, the Biden administration and its counterparts in Australia and the United States announced a new “ enhanced trilateral security partnership ” in 2021, called AUKUS. Made up of two pillars — .
