Summary European and United States-based carriers have seen limited growth opportunities for flights in China. That was because in large part, these airlines have been affected by the closure of the airspace over Russia, which has not affected their Chinese counterparts. As a result, China-based airlines have outpaced European and US-based companies when it comes to the recovery of flights from/to China.
Over the past few years, ever-escalating tensions and geopolitical rifts between Europe and the United States and Russia, as well as its close ally, China, have also affected aviation in various ways. Without mentioning aircraft-related issues, including Western lessors’ assets that are stuck in Russia , one problem that has been affecting carriers on the Western side of the geopolitical block was that they could no longer access Russia’s airspace following the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Since then, Western allies have banned Russian airlines from entering their airspace, with the latter immediately repaying the favor.
As a result, European and US airlines have largely avoided adding flights to China and Hong Kong, while airlines based in these regions have outpaced the growth of their Western counterparts, adding more frequencies year-on-year (YoY) in 2024. Uneven growth Looking at data from the aviation analytics company Cirium , 15 Europe and US-based airlines, excluding Russian carriers, have scheduled 234 weekly flights to China and Hong Kong in August. In comparison, these airlines had 173 weekly itineraries to China and Hong Kong in August 2023, representing a 35.
3% growth in flights YoY. However, only three airlines have added more than ten flights to their networks to China and Hong Kong YoY. This included United Airlines (19 additional weekly departures), Lufthansa (17 additional weekly departures), and Delta Air Lines (ten additional weekly departures).
August 2019 August 2023 August 2024 Western airlines’ weekly flights to China 502 173 234 Western airlines’ weekly seats to China 153,105 52,651 70,392 At the same time, comparing the same month’s data from 2019 painted a stark image, showing that for Western carriers, the Chinese market was still half of what it was in 2024. In a February filing, American Airlines requested the Department of Transportation (DOT) to extend its waiver to not operate its 14 weekly flights from the US to China, which was introduced in March 2020 and has been extended several times throughout the past few years. While American Airlines praised the DOT’s efforts to reinstate frequencies between the two countries, the airline said that the majority of pre-pandemic frequencies have continued to be dormant “and likely will remain so through at least the 2024 summer season, since US–China passenger demand has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
” Requesting an extension of the same waiver, Delta Air Lines repeated American’s sentiments, firstly praising the DOT. “Nonetheless, due to ongoing aeropolitical challenges, additional frequencies are unlikely to be able to be fully authorized for use in the upcoming IATA Summer Season. Additionally, given the challenges inherent in the restoration of service between the US and China, further extensions of dormancy waivers may be necessary in the future.
” Major US airlines can defer the resumption of many China flights until October. Chinese carrier’s growth Meanwhile, China-based airlines, including Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific , have continued growing their European and US networks seemingly unabated. YoY, a total of 13 carriers based in China and Hong Kong have added 257 weekly flights in August.
Out of the 13, Air China , China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Juneyao Air, Sichuan Airlines, and Xiamen Airlines have added ten or more weekly flights to Europe and the US YoY in August. August 2019 August 2023 August 2024 Chinese and Hong Kong airlines’ weekly flights to Europe and the US 915 436 693 Chinese and Hong Kong airlines’ weekly seats to Europe and the US 271,266 132,025 209,561 Still, much like Western airlines, Chinese carriers were relatively far off capacity-wise on flights to Europe and the US than in 2019. Chinese airlines have already reached the direct flight limit between China and the US.
However, US airlines still have room to add more flights. Re-routing and avoiding Russian airspace At the same time, the DOT has only allowed new frequencies if Chinese carriers avoid using Russian airspace. For example, on March 15, the DOT filed a document that indicated that specific Chinese airlines were allowed to add an additional 15 weekly flights on routes between the US and China.
The filing included Air China gaining approval to operate flight CA981/CA982 from Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) to New York John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) . Instead of flying the usual great circle route, which would take the airline’s aircraft north through Russia before it descends south toward JFK, Air China has operated the flight by directly crossing the Pacific Ocean before ascending up to Alaska and overflying Canada before landing at JFK.
The following compares the regular flight route that Air China used to take to operate its flights from PEK to JFK before the pandemic and the path the airline has taken to fly the same route recently. However, the same rules do not apply to Chinese carriers’ flights to Europe, including the United Kingdom (UK). Most recently, British Airways said it would pause its flights from London Heathrow Airport (LHR) to Beijing Daxing International Airport (PKX) starting in October.
While the airline did not pinpoint the reason for the year-long hiatus – the route should return in November 2025 – it has become apparent that Chinese carriers have had an advantage over their European counterparts when it comes to flying to China. Cirium data showed that British Airways’ block time was 690 minutes, while China Southern Airlines , which has competed against the British airline on the route, filed a block time of 605 or 610 minutes, with the former being valid for its Sunday itinerary. Lufthansa , which has the most weekly frequencies to China out of all the European and US-based carriers operating flights to the country, admitted that in H1, its yields on its Asian routes were weaker than expected.
Furthermore, the group outlined that escalating geopolitical conflicts, including in the Middle East, could further deteriorate its financial position, which included the indirect effects of rising fuel prices, falling travel demand, and “additional fuel costs due to airspace closures and more stringent security requirements.” The group pointed out that its flagship airline, Lufthansa, had a particularly difficult six months in 2024..
