The Twins are 55-44 and currently in possession of one of the American League wild-card spots, as well as sitting just four games back of the Guardians in the AL Central division. That should put them in clear buyer position ahead of next week’s trade deadline but Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that they might have to walk an “add-and-subtract” tightrope due to financial limitations. Per the report, the Twins would have to move out some money if they were able to acquire any player with a notable salary.
Last year, the Twins broke a notable streak, winning their first playoff game since 2004. Though their season was eventually ended by the Astros in the Division Series, it was a relative high note for the franchise. But any optimism for the 2024 season quickly hit an obstacle.
President of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters in early November, just days into the offseason, that the payroll would be going down. That was seemingly in connection to the club’s TV revenue situation. The club reportedly received $54M from Diamond Sports Group in 2023 but that company has been in the process of going bankrupt for a while, casting plenty of uncertainty about how things will play out going forward.
The Twins and Diamond agreed to a new deal in February of 2024 but it was only a one-year pact and reportedly with reduced fees coming to the club Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts , the Twins reached a new franchise high in 2023 with an Opening Day payroll of $154M. That dropped to $127M here in 2024 and it seems there’s not much wiggle room to go much higher than that. It’s not clear if the club is in such a tight spot that they can only consider revenue-neutral trades or if they have the ability to take on a small amount of money, but it seems like the budget will have to be front of mind for the club as they navigate the deadline.
If the scenario does come to pass where they need to move money out to bring some in, they would have some options. Manuel Margot might be somewhat expendable in a fairly crowded position player mix and he’s making $10M this year, though the Twins are only covering $4M of that after acquiring him from the Dodgers in February. By deadline time, there will be around $1.
3M of that left to be paid out. Max Kepler is making $10M and is an impending free agent but is playing every day and in the middle of the lineup. Ditto for Carlos Santana and his $5.
25M salary. Moving either of those two would be a hit to the club’s lineup, though perhaps they feel they have enough internal position players to make up for the lost production. Infielders Royce Lewis and José Miranda are each on the injured list but nearing returns.
That could perhaps push Brooks Lee , who has been covering third base lately, to second base. That could theoretically nudge Edouard Julien from second to first base to supplant Santana. Willi Castro , who has been covering shortstop with Carlos Correa also on the IL, could wind up in the outfield if Lewis or Lee covers short.
Trevor Larnach has been the club’s regular designated hitter lately but he could perhaps take more outfield time if that crowded infield spills into the DH slot. Christian Vázquez is in the second season of a three-year, $30M deal and is currently one of three catchers on the roster alongside Ryan Jeffers and Jair Camargo . The Twins would likely be open to moving Vázquez and had some trade talks regarding him in the offseason but his performance has been declining and the club would likely have to include some prospects in order to get someone to absorb that money.
Kyle Farmer is making $6.05M this year and has a $250K buyout on a mutual option for 2025 but he’s currently on the injured list. Caleb Thielbar has a $3.
225M salary and is an impending free agent but he has a 5.79 ERA this year. Anthony DeSclafani is making $12M this year but the Mariners agreed to cover $8M of that as part of the trade that sent him to Minnesota.
He’s done for the year but the Twins could theoretically send a prospect or two to another team in exchange for that club paying the remainder of what they owe DeSclafani. There are plenty of moving parts there and the Twins will ultimately be making decisions based on what kind of offers are coming their way from other clubs, as well as the health or lack thereof among the players currently on the roster. Ideally, a club in a playoff spot would just be looking to add and not have to play this kind of seven-dimensional chess, but the financial situation in Minnesota might make it necessary.
As to what they will be looking to add, Falvey confirmed that the club is looking for pitching, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune . That aligns with previous reporting from Dan Hayes of The Athletic that the club would be looking to bolster its starting staff, perhaps by taking on rentals. Hayes floated Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays as a possible target and Nightengale reports today that the Twins have shown “at least preliminary interest” in him.
Kikuchi signed a three-year deal with the Jays going into 2022 and is now a few months from returning to free agency. The $36M guarantee was frontloaded, so the lefty made $16M in the first season followed by successive $10M salaries in the final two years. By the time the deadline rolls around, there will be roughly $3.
3M left to be paid out. That’s not a massive sum by baseball standards but if it’s too rich for the Twins, they could always ask the Jays to keep most of that money on their books. Such an arrangement would require the Twins to part with more prospect capital but that might be the way they have to operate if they don’t have financial wiggle room.
It’s unclear if the Jays are going to be focused on adding talent or dipping below the luxury tax , but they’re 10 games back of a playoff spot and looking to trade their rental players . If the two sides can work out those finer details, Kikuchi makes plenty of sense for the Twins. They’ve lost DeSclafani for the year and Chris Paddack is on the injured list due to a right arm issue for the second time this summer.
David Festa and Louie Varland have struggled at the major league level and are currently on optional assignment. The club still has a decent foursome in Pablo López , Joe Ryan , Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson , but there’s also sense in adding to that group as they need a fifth starter and an injury can also change the calculus at any moment. Kikuchi’s results have been up and down but he’s having a strong season in the aggregate.
He’s thrown 111 innings for the Jays here in 2024 with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.
He has a 4.54 ERA but at least part of that appears to be due to a .334 batting average on balls in play.
His 3.58 FIP and 3.41 SIERA suggest he’s actually been far better than his ERA would suggest.
Most of those numbers are roughly in line with his 2023 season, wherein he posted a 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.
9% walk rate. His .314 BABIP was closer to league average last year and he had a 4.
12 FIP and 3.86 SIERA. This article first appeared on MLB Trade Rumors and was syndicated with permission.
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