NHL front offices must budget for a star player’s looming contract status far in advance. Planning ahead of time is necessary because there’s a major trickle-down effect when one of the best players on a team goes from being significantly underpaid to commanding huge money. There are fewer dollars to go around for other parts of the roster, which can force teams to make tough decisions to let other players go.
Advertisement Leon Draisaitl ’s eight-year, $112 million extension is the first domino to fall among marquee players whose contracts are set to expire at the end of the 2024-25 season. Which stars could be next, how much could they cost and how will it impact their respective team’s cap situation? In this piece, we’re going to analyze some of those questions, focusing primarily on players who are projected to see a significant spike in their cap hit (we won’t include Sidney Crosby , for example, because his next deal won’t cost substantially more than the $8.7 million AAV he’s already on).
Every team on this list can afford to extend the elite player in question, but the point is to highlight which clubs can handle it more comfortably than others and what sacrifices it may require elsewhere. When a team and player negotiate the price of a new contract, they’ll search for players who are comparable in production, age and overall value. They’ll look at what those comparables earned on their contracts and that often becomes a ballpark range for that player’s market value.
One key concept to understand as we find comparables to estimate these star players’ next contracts is that cap hit percentage matters more than AAV. The easiest way to explain this is with an example. The $14 million cap hit that Draisaitl signed for is the highest AAV in NHL history.
Some people may have been shocked to see a number that high, but it’s perfectly reasonable when you account for the salary cap’s expected rise in 2025-26. Draisaitl’s cap hit in Year 1 of his deal will eat up a nearly identical percentage of the salary cap ceiling as Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon ’s deals consumed in Year 1 of their respective contracts. Remember to focus on salary cap percentage, rather than AAV for contract comparables.
There are so many elite players’ contract situations we could analyze, but let’s focus on five intriguing cases for today. Igor Shesterkin , New York Rangers Current cap hit: $5.67 million Expiry status: Unrestricted free agent What his next deal could roughly cost: Shesterkin is arguably the best netminder on the planet and he’ll be paid accordingly on his next deal.
As colleague Arthur Staple wrote , Carey Price’s 2017 extension, which ate up 14 percent of the salary cap at the time, could be the bar that Shesterkin’s camp pushes for. Fourteen percent of the salary cap would translate to a $12.9 million cap hit if we assume the cap rises to $92 million for 2025-26.
The most favorable comparable for the Rangers, meanwhile, might be Connor Hellebuyck ’s seven-year extension, which ate up 9.66 percent of the cap and would translate to an $8.9 million cap hit.
Shesterkin’s numbers are superior to Hellebuyck’s, especially in the playoffs, but in most negotiations, the two parties start far apart and meet closer to the middle. The Rangers might bring a comparable like Hellebuyck to the table, but they obviously wouldn’t expect this to be the final number. Advertisement If we split the difference between the Price and Hellebuyck cap hit percentage, we’d arrive at about 11.
8 percent of the cap, which equates to a $10.9 million cap hit. That seems like a reasonable ballpark.
It would be a record-setting AAV for a goaltender to sign and right around the neighborhood of Andrei Vasilevskiy ’s last deal (his cap hit percentage would translate to a $10.7 million AAV). Projected cap space before Shesterkin extension (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $33.
8 million (10 players signed) Rangers 2025 pending UFAs: Shesterkin, Ryan Lindgren , Reilly Smith , Jonathan Quick , Jimmy Vesey , Chad Ruhwedel Rangers 2025 pending RFAs: Alexis Lafrenière , K’Andre Miller , Kaapo Kakko , Will Cuylle , Zac Jones , Adam Edstrom , Matt Rempe The Rangers’ problem is that Shesterkin isn’t the only key player who’ll be looking for a significant raise. Lafrenière will need a new deal and if last year’s massive progress is any indication, he may have a monster 2024-25 season that inflates the price of his next deal further. K’Andre Miller, a top-four cornerstone, will require a new contract too.
How tight will the Rangers’ cap squeeze be? Let’s map out a rough projection. We’ll plug in a $10.9 million cap hit for Shesterkin and we’ll use AFP Analytics’ projections for Lafrenière ($7 million AAV) and Miller ($6.
4 million AAV). You may disagree with the estimates for these players (I believe $7 million is quite low for Lafrenière, for example), but the purpose of this is to just be in a semi-realistic neighborhood so we can illustrate the big-picture cap view rather than nailing these contract projections as precisely as possible. Shesterkin, Lafrenière and Miller would cost a combined $24.
3 million with the aforementioned estimates. New York would be left with $9.5 million of cap space in this hypothetical scenario, which is peanuts considering there’d only be 13 players signed, including the need for another top-six forward and top-four defenseman (Lindgren’s not included because he’ll be a pending UFA).
The Rangers probably can’t afford to re-sign Lindgren next summer and will need to find a way to offload the final year of Jacob Trouba ’s $8 million ticket next summer. Without a Trouba trade, it’ll be exceptionally difficult for the club to maintain its Stanley Cup contender status given how expensive their best players will be in 2025-26. Advertisement The big X-factor in all of this will be top prospects Gabe Perreault and Brennan Othmann .
It’d be massive if they could emerge as top-nine forwards on cheap entry-level contracts by 2025-26 to help alleviate this cap crunch. Evan Bouchard , Edmonton Oilers Current cap hit: $3.9 million Expiry status: Restricted free agent with arbitration rights What his next deal could roughly cost: Bouchard erupted for 18 goals and 82 points last season and finished fifth in Norris Trophy voting.
He’s arrived as an elite defenseman and will continue piling up ludicrous point totals playing alongside Connor McDavid at even strength and on the power play. He’ll have a little bit less leverage because he’s still under team control as a restricted free agent, but he’ll have arbitration rights which is extremely valuable. AFP Analytics projects that Bouchard’s next deal will clock in the $10.
1 million AAV range. If he has another monster season his camp could push for a deal closer to Rasmus Dahlin ’s $11 million AAV extension last summer. For now, we’ll plug in AFP Analytics’ $10.
1 million cap hit. Projected cap space before Bouchard extension (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $14.6 million (16 players signed) Oilers 2025 pending UFAs: Jeff Skinner , Connor Brown , Corey Perry , Derek Ryan , Ty Emberson Oilers 2025 pending RFAs: Bouchard The Oilers will be squeezed cap-wise next summer, but they may not be as screwed as you’d expect given Draisaitl and Bouchard’s raises.
Right off the bat, the club will have an extra $3.225 million to play with because the dead cap space of Connor Brown’s performance bonus overage will disappear. A big chunk of Draisaitl and Bouchard’s salary increases will already be accounted for with just the $3.
225 million from Brown’s performance bonus and the projected $4 million cap increase. Advertisement Edmonton will have around $4.5 million of cap space with 17 players signed if Bouchard extends at a $10.
1 million AAV. That will certainly be tight — the Oilers will need to find a middle-six forward if Jeff Skinner walks, plus a few depth forwards — but there isn’t going to be a major talent exodus. Matt Savoie could realistically be ready to grab a top-nine opportunity at an entry-level contract price to help alleviate this crunch too.
The Oilers could also look to jettison the final year of Evander Kane ’s contract ($5.125 million) to carve out additional flexibility because his no-movement clause will transition to a 16-team trade list by next summer. Edmonton could invest those potential savings to land a right-shot top-four defender.
Sure, GM Stan Bowman won’t have much money to throw around next summer, but the club won’t be forced to sacrifice valuable pieces off the roster for cap purposes. Mikko Rantanen , Colorado Avalanche Current cap hit: $9.25 million Expiry status: Unrestricted free agent What his next deal could roughly cost: William Nylander ’s extension last season should be the floor for Rantanen’s next deal.
Nylander re-signed for eight years at an $11.5 million AAV (13.1 percent of the cap), which converts to just over $12 million based on a $92 million cap ceiling for 2025-26.
Rantanen has eclipsed 100 points in back-to-back seasons and averaged 1.27 points per game over the last three seasons compared to Nylander, who’s never hit the 100-point mark and has averaged 1.08 points per game in that same timeframe.
Draisaitl’s mega $14 million AAV extension, meanwhile, represents the ceiling for Rantanen’s contract. However, Draisaitl has outproduced Rantanen in each of the last six seasons and plays center, which is a more valuable position. Rantanen should make more than Nylander but less than Draisaitl, so $13 million would be the middle ground between those two deals.
Another contract comparable that isn’t as new, but could be relevant is David Pastrnak ’s eight-year extension from 2023. That deal ate up 13.5 percent of the cap, which would equate to just shy of $12.
5 million for 2025-26. My rough estimate of Rantanen’s market value would be $12.5-13 million.
Let’s split the difference and plug in a $12.75 million cap hit for Rantanen. Advertisement Some Avs fans will disagree with the notion of Rantanen potentially eclipsing Nathan MacKinnon’s $12.
6 million cap hit. Maybe that’s an internal lever that brings the number closer to $12.5 million, but keep in mind that MacKinnon’s deal is already outdated because it was signed two years ago with a lower salary cap.
Projected cap space before Rantanen extension (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $21.3 million (13 players signed) Avalanche key 2025 pending UFAs: Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin , Alexandar Georgiev , Logan O’Connor , Oliver Kylington , Calvin de Haan , Joel Kiviranta Avalanche key 2025 pending RFAs: Nikolai Kovalenko , Erik Brannstrom If we plug a $12.75 million estimate in for Rantanen, the Avs will have about $8.
6 million of cap space left over with only 14 players signed. It will be extremely tight because they’ll need a starting goaltender, one or two top-nine forwards (since Drouin and O’Connor are pending UFAs) and they only have four NHL defenders under contract for 2025-26. It also hurts that they don’t have any blue-chip prospects who are expected to graduate to the NHL in 2025-26 to provide cheap value on an entry-level contract.
Will Colorado need to move out a substantial contract so it can afford to acquire a legit starter and address the rest of its depth lineup needs for cheap? Ross Colton , for example, has been a strong fit as the club’s third-line center but at $4 million, will he be a luxury the Avs can no longer afford? He has a full no-trade clause right now but that will shift to only partial control next offseason. Valeri Nichushkin ’s future with the club also looms as a question mark that will carry major cap ramifications. In any case, GM Chris MacFarland will need to make creative, shrewd moves to flesh out his roster adequately after Rantanen’s contract has been taken care of.
Wyatt Johnston , Dallas Stars Current cap hit: $894,167 Expiry status: Restricted free agent What his next deal could roughly cost: Johnston has strong breakout potential heading into the final year of his entry-level contract. The 21-year-old scored 28 goals and 65 points as a sophomore but will be in line for increased first-unit power-play time following Joe Pavelski’s retirement that could juice his offensive numbers closer to the point-per-game mark. He already produced at that level in the second half, scoring 21 goals and 41 points in his final 41 games.
Advertisement A huge platform year would certainly inflate the cost of his next contract. Another pivotal factor will be whether the Stars opt to bridge him short-term on a lower cap hit (like they did with Jason Robertson , Roope Hintz and Jake Oettinger ) or extend him long-term on a higher cap hit (like they did with Miro Heiskanen ). According to AFP Analytics, Johnston is projected to earn around $8.
1 million annually on a six-year deal or $6.4 million annually on a three-year deal. Projected cap space before Johnston extension (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $42.
7 million (9 players signed) Stars key 2025 pending UFAs: Jamie Benn , Matt Duchene , Esa Lindell , Evgenii Dadonov , Sam Steel , Colin Blackwell Stars key 2025 pending RFAs: Johnston, Jake Oettinger, Mavrik Bourque , Nils Lundkvist The $42.7 million in projected cap space might sound like a big number but it’s deceiving. The Stars only have nine players under contract for 2025-26 and several key players to re-sign beyond Johnston.
Thomas Harley , a key top-four building block, hasn’t yet been signed for this season. Oettinger will be a restricted free agent at the end of next season, while Benn, Duchene and Lindell stand out among the pending UFAs. Just how difficult will the Stars’ cap outlook be next summer? Let’s insert AFP Analytics’ projection for a Johnston bridge contract ($6.
4 million), a Harley bridge contract (a two-year deal at a $4.1 million AAV) and a long-term deal for Oettinger ($7 million x five years) since he’s closer to unrestricted free agency. In this scenario, Dallas would have $21.
2 million of cap space left over with 12 players signed. The Stars also have to consider that 2025-26 will mark the final year of Jason Robertson’s team-friendly bridge deal. It’d be ideal for Dallas to lock up Johnston long-term because he’s a rising star, but with all the other business the club needs to get done, they may have to opt for a shorter bridge deal.
Advertisement Noah Dobson , New York Islanders Current cap hit: $4 million Expiry status: Restricted free agent with arbitration rights What his next deal could roughly cost: Dobson emerged as a bona fide No. 1 defenseman last year, scoring 70 points in 79 games and ranking top-10 in Norris voting. AFP Analytics estimates that his next contract will clock in at around a $10 million cap hit.
Truthfully, that number seems a touch too high. Dobson’s offensive point totals are elite — which is what these projections are primarily based on — but he’s still a work in progress defensively. I’d bet nearly every NHL GM would take Charlie McAvoy over Dobson, for example.
McAvoy signed an extension in 2021 at 10.8 percent of the salary cap, which would equate to $9.9 million for 2025-26.
I’d argue that Dobson should clock in a bit below that, perhaps closer to the $9.5 million range. For this exercise, let’s pencil in a $9.
5 million cap hit. Projected cap space before Dobson extension (assuming a $92 million cap ceiling): $26.2 million (13 players signed) Islanders 2025 pending UFAs: Brock Nelson , Kyle Palmieri , Hudson Fasching Islanders 2025 pending RFAs: Dobson, Alexander Romanov , Simon Holmstrom , Samuel Bolduc , Oliver Wahlstrom The Islanders won’t have much room to improve their roster next summer because of their cap situation.
If Dobson re-signs for a $9.5 million AAV, Lou Lamiorello will have around $16.7 million to spend, which isn’t a lot considering their needs.
Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri’s expiring contracts mean the Isles need two top-six forwards just to maintain what they currently have, and defenseman Alexander Romanov will be looking to get paid as an RFA after solidifying himself in the top four last season. After that, they’ll need to fill out several depth lineup spots, too. Advertisement The Isles must find exit options on Jean-Gabriel Pageau and/or Anders Lee ’s overpriced contracts to free up the cap flexibility if they have serious ambitions of upgrading the roster next summer.
Other key pending UFAs and RFAs to watch: Carter Verhaeghe ( Panthers ), Shea Theodore ( Golden Knights ), Sidney Crosby ( Penguins ), Brock Boeser ( Canucks ), Nikolaj Ehlers ( Jets ), Mitch Marner ( Maple Leafs ), Alexis Lafrenière (Rangers), Luke Hughes ( Devils ), Jack Quinn ( Sabres ), Linus Ullmark ( Senators ), Mason McTavish ( Ducks ), Dylan Guenther (Utah HC) (Photos of Evan Bouchard and Mikko Rantanen: Sergei Belski / USA Today and Michael Reaves / Getty Images).
