It was a confounding scene for Argentines, Brazilians, and Venezuelans alike. On Thursday, August 1, less than four days after the Venezuelan elections, Brazilian diplomats raised their country’s flag above the Argentine embassy in Caracas. Earlier that week, Venezuela’s sitting president, Nicolás Maduro, had given Argentina’s personnel, along with those of seven other nations accusing his government of fraud, a 72-hour deadline to leave the country — a decision that imperiled six Venezuelan opposition figures who had been granted political asylum at the embassy since March.
What happened next was even more surprising. Although he did not mention anybody by name, Argentine President Javier Milei thanked the government of Brazil, citing the two nations’ “long and historic ties.” For Milei, it was an abrupt shift in tone after previously branding Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva “corrupt” and a “communist.
” (Lula, for his part, declined an invitation to the radical libertarian’s inauguration and has said Milei owes him an apology for the “stupid things” he has said.) Whether this latest overture signals a thaw between the two heads of state remains to be seen. Less than a year into his term of office, however, it’s often difficult to discern where Milei’s personal grievances end and his presidency begins.
At first blush, it would appear as though the self-styled anarcho-capitalist were charting a similar course to past liberal presidents by aligning himself with the United States economically and, in the case of Carlos Menem, militarily. Yet as his public spats with left-of-center governments mount and his withdrawal from Latin America grows more pronounced, some analysts believe he sees himself in a Manichean struggle against the perceived forces of socialism — and that he’s conducting international affairs along purely ideological lines. Now, as the U.
S. braces for a contentious election this November, Milei is betting on Donald Trump’s return to the White House, even as the outcome of that race looks increasingly uncertain. “Milei’s foreign policy is very clearly defined,” Fernando Iglesias, a legislator with the center-right PRO Party and head of the congressional foreign relations committee, told the Herald .
“For the last 20 years, Argentina has been aligned with the most anti-democratic and authoritarian countries in the world, including Venezuela.” “Today, we have the exact opposite,” he continued. “Argentina stands with Ukraine and against Putin.
It supports the Venezuelan opposition rather than the Maduro dictatorship. It backs Israel and its right to defend itself. Argentina is on the side of democracy, and the realignment has been clear.
” Bukele, Bolsonaro, Orbán, Netanyahu This realignment began even before Milei took office. On November 30, 2023, 11 days ahead of his inauguration, his presumptive foreign secretary, Diana Mondino, announced that Argentina would not be joining BRICS — an intergovernmental organization of emerging economies that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Mondino claimed at the time that she didn’t see any “advantages” in the country’s admission to the bloc, which Milei’s predecessor, Alberto Fernández, had announced the previous August.
Last month, the Milei administration declared its bid to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, composed of 38 mostly wealthy European and North American countries, with the president calling it a matter of “national interest.” Just one week before, he’d revealed that he would not be attending this year’s Mercosur trade summit in Asunción and would send Mondino instead. Lula lambasted the decision as “immense nonsense.
” “Milei is relegating Argentina to an even smaller role on the global stage than it had previously,” Gisela Pererya Doval, an expert in international relations with Argentina’s national research council CONICET, told the Herald. “Traditionally, it has been a powerful voice in Latin America. By skipping this year’s Mercosur event, which is in the country’s national interest, he makes Argentina look like a third-rate nation.
” Milei’s commitment to global democracy has been more mutable. While champions of the administration, like Iglesias, are quick to point to Milei’s vociferous opposition to Maduro, they elide his willingness to associate (and sometimes actively align) with more authoritarian elements on the right, both in the region and beyond. In June, following stateside meetings with tech impresarios Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, Milei attended the inauguration of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele — a figure whose draconian policing methods have elicited condemnation from numerous human rights organizations.
Then, in July, Milei used his first diplomatic visit to Brazil to meet not with President Lula da Silva but with his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro was implicated earlier this year in a coup attempt following his country’s 2022 election. According to the Brazilian Federal Police, at least 48 of the coup plotters were residing in Argentina as recently as June, although Defense Minister Patricia Bullrich has denied that any are actively seeking asylum.
The Argentine president has likewise expressed unwavering support for Israel , even as the United Nations has accused the nation of crimes against humanity and the International Court of Justice has ruled that its occupation of Gaza was unlawful. “I think he wants to position himself as an ideological leader of the global conservative movement,” said Michael Paarlberg, an assistant professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University and the Latin America advisor to Senator Bernie Sanders during the 2020 U.S.
Democratic primary. “He sees himself as very much aligned with far-right figures like Viktor Orbán and Benjamin Netanyahu, who have followings beyond their own countries and constituencies.” Petulance as public policy In 1991, then-President Carlos Menem withdrew Argentina from the Non-Aligned Movement that it had joined in 1973 when it formally refused to choose a side in the Cold War.
Menem provided military support for Operation Desert Shield in Iraq two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, with one objective in mind: to bring his country into the United States’ orbit. The Milei administration has likewise enjoyed close relations with Joe Biden, welcoming his CIA director, William Burns, and General Laura Richardson of United States Southern Command on separate occasions. During Milei’s meeting with the latter in April, he stressed the importance of deepening Argentina’s ties to Washington.
“Sovereignty can’t be defended with isolationism,” he told the press during an unscheduled trip to Ushuaia. “You need to build strategic alliances with countries that share your worldview.” At times, however, Milei appears to be conducting foreign policy via public feud.
Although he has held bilateral talks with moderates like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz , he has also made a habit of bashing left-of-center politicians in both the Americas and Europe. In March, Colombian President Gustavo Petro recalled his ambassador to Bogotá after the Argentine president called him a “terrorist assassin” — a jab at his past as a member of a guerilla group that would later become the M-19 Democratic Alliance. Petro had previously recalled his ambassador in January after Milei labeled him a “murderous communist who is sinking Colombia.
” Milei’s relationship with President Pedro Sánchez of Spain has proved no less contentious. In May, the Casa Rosada accused Sánchez, who is the leader of his country’s Socialist Party, of “endangering Spanish women by allowing illegal immigration” and of bringing “death and poverty” to Spain through his leftist policies. The barbs followed a suggestion by Sánchez’s minister of transportation, Oscar Puente, that Milei had abused illegal “substances” on the campaign trail.
Sanchez would subsequently recall Spain’s ambassador after Milei called his wife, Begoña Gomez, “corrupt.” “These fights are a little like arguments between children,” Iglesias said. “You have to ask, ‘Who started it, and who hit below the belt?’ In this case, the blame lies with Sánchez, who has never corrected or retracted the statements that members of his government have made.
If Milei hasn’t apologized to him or Lula, it’s because he doesn’t feel he has to.” Pereyra Doval contends that heads of state don’t have that luxury. “One thing is the foreign policy of a nation,” Pereyra Doval told the Herald.
“Another is the kind of personal promotion that Milei engages in when he receives these awards from libertarian organizations or when he’s ranting on social media.” “What Milei fails to understand is that when he speaks, he does so on behalf of the Argentine government,” she continued. “As president, that’s the body he represents.
” “A desperate bet” Milei’s affinity for Trump is a matter of public record. During an interview with right-wing media personality Tucker Carlson in September 2023, the then-congressman and presidential hopeful praised him as one of the few heads of state who “truly understood they were fighting against socialism.” In February, Milei greeted Trump at CPAC , an annual conference of right-wing politicians and thought leaders, by offering him a bear hug and telling him that he hoped he would become president again.
At the time, Trump, who has been charged with attempting to overthrow the 2020 U.S. presidential election, referred to Milei as a “great gentleman” — a sentiment he echoed in March when he told his supporters, “I love Milei because Milei loves me!” (Milei would later blame the “international left” for an attempt on the Republican standard bearer’s life at a Pennsylvania rally.
) Yet should Trump triumph this November, their fledgling bond could be put to the test. While inflation has cooled in Argentina , its central bank remains perilously low on reserves , leaving the Milei administration eyeing a new loan from the U.S.
-backed International Monetary Fund. “Milei is making a desperate bet,” said Vicky Murillo, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University in New York. “He needs foreign currency.
Exporters are not selling their goods, and bondholders are afraid. These people are not responding as he expected to his economic policies, and the gap in the exchange rate is especially concerning because it affects prices and may impact his public support.” “He’s just trying to hold on until January,” she continued.
“If Trump wins, he expects to get money from the IMF or, maybe, the U.S. Treasury.
Milei thinks if it worked for [Mauricio] Macri, it could work for him.” (In 2018, while Trump was still in office, then-President Mauricio Macri secured a record US$57 billion loan from the fund, withdrawing US$44 billion before Fernández canceled the final tranche. Macri, who endorsed Milei for president, now leads the PRO Party.
) As recently as last month, Milei’s preferences aligned neatly with the state of the U.S. presidential race.
Trump led Biden by 3-5 percentage points nationally, depending on the poll, while the latter’s favorability rating was among the lowest in modern history amid mounting questions concerning his cognitive decline and the United States’ support for an increasingly unpopular war in the Middle East. All of that changed on July 21 when Biden withdrew from contention. In just three weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris has made up much of the ground Biden had lost, and polling now puts her in a statistical tie with her Republican opponent, if not slightly ahead.
Despite these latest developments, some analysts maintain that Milei is making a reasonable bet, whatever one thinks of his economic policies. “If Trump wins, Argentina becomes his most important ally in Latin America,” explained Ariel Gonzalez Levaggi, executive secretary of the Center for International Affairs at the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina. “If Harris wins, he can pivot again to the role he’s assumed under Biden as a pragmatic partner.
” Milei’s mandate of heaven Still, others contend that Milei is overestimating the support he’d receive from Trump in his second term or worse, failing to recognize that a Harris administration would, potentially, be more amenable to helping him realize his agenda. “Milei likes Trump because they have somewhat similar styles and personalities, but I think he perhaps projects onto him the kind of conservative he is,” said Paarlberg. “Milei is unique among right-wing leaders for being highly ideological.
Trump doesn’t know Frederich Hayek or the other obscure Austrian economists Milei idolizes. If Trump has a guiding principle at all, it’s nativism, which is not necessarily complimentary to Milei’s or Argentina’s interests.” “It’s actually notable how much the Biden administration has cozied up to Milei despite his so openly favoriting his political rival.
” Paarlberg notes that a Democratic White House is inclined to work with Latin American countries, even one whose president is as avowedly preferential as Argentina’s, because it aims to prevent China from developing a monopoly on lithium and other natural resources. But whether Milei will prioritize his ties to prominent reactionaries and his newfound celebrity on the global right remains an open question, at least until November. “In the 1990s, there was a strategic alliance with the United States rooted in realpolitik,” explained Doval.
“After the Cold War, the belief was that this was the only way to overcome underdevelopment. Milei is driven purely by dogma, and he’s not seeking an alliance with the United States but the American right.” “He believes he’s on a mission to save the West,” she added.
“It’s almost messianic.” Last week, Milei issued the latest salvo in an ongoing war of words with Maduro after the Venezuelan strongman accused him of participating in “devilish circles” and “satanic cults.” “Victory in combat does not depend on the number of soldiers, but on the strength that comes from heaven,” he wrote on X.
“Communism is atheistic, we have faith in God [sic].” On Monday, Casa Rosada Spokesman Manuel Adorni confirmed that Milei will be traveling to Mexico at the end of August. He won’t be meeting with President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador or his newly elected successor, Claudia Sheinbaum.
Instead, he’ll be attending an all-new CPAC event in Mexico City. Credit cover photo: Mariano Fuchila.
