A second presidential term is the ultimate trophy in American politics. But those who win it often see it as something more: a chance to change the country — or at least its national government –- to make it more to their liking. Influenced by both an inner circle and throngs of fervid supporters, second-term presidents hear the word “mandate” and believe the voters have given them new and almost limitless leeway to deliver marching orders to the nation.
In reality, swing voters in key states tend to tell a different story — one that spotlights the voters’ own personal circumstances, including whether they see themselves as “better off” or not. The highly unusual circumstance of 2024 was the presence on the ballot of a former president, Donald Trump, who was defeated in 2020. This year, he came back — the first former president to seek a new term in more than a century.
His opponent was the current vice president, Kamala Harris. But for a crucial slice of the electorate, the comparison was not between Trump and Harris but between memories of the last four years and memories of the pre-COVID years that preceded them. For these voters, Kamala Harris was a reminder of hardships visited on working class families of all kinds by the COVID year and the post-COVID inflation spike that drove up prices on everyday goods such as food, gas and shelter.
Trump offered a version of the pre-COVID economy that sounded good by comparison. These voters’ focus was and is on .
