Chris Dell | (TNS) Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Perfection is an illusion. Just when we think it’s firmly in our grasp, it somehow evades us. However, as the late great Vince Lombardi said, “Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection, then we can come close to catching excellence.
” This is never more true when it comes to our fantasy football drafts in 2024. If you’re reading this column in mid-August — before a single NFL regular season game has been played — then that probably means you’ll be participating in a fantasy draft with around 10 or so others sometime over the next two weeks. That probably also means that each of those 10 or so opponents you’re competing against will enter those drafts having some idea of the players they either love or hate.
Some will even think they have some genius “strategy” that they read in some three-months-old, now completely irrelevant fantasy magazine. It’s OK, we’ve all been there. Heck, I still even uphold my annual tradition of buying at least one fantasy mag, fresh off the racks at Barnes & Noble every fall, though I might not ever read a single page of it.
At this point, it’s all just for the vibes — and also to appease those ever-judgemental fantasy gods, of course. All kidding aside, there might be something more profound to that Lombardi quote after all. Or, as the legendary philosopher Aristotle once uttered, “Pleasure in the job puts perfection in the work.
” Case in point: winning a fantasy draft takes a lot more than simply showing up with a fantasy magazine and printed-out cheat sheet these days. Contrary to the Average (Fantasy) Joe’s opinion, we should actually be entering our drafts with zero strategy at all. In reality, our strategy should bend-not-break each round depending on which players fall farther than they should, which players are being taken higher than they should and your own roster’s positional needs.
So it turns out that our best ‘strategy’ isn’t, in fact, a strategy at all. It’s simply being willing to adjust on the fly and be as flexible as humanly possible, all in the face of that ticking clock. Last week, we discussed the three fundamental draft principles: 1.
Drafting based on ADP (average draft position) market value; 2. Drafting ambiguous running back groups; and 3. Drafting players to best fit your specific league rules, starting roster structure and scoring formats.
This week, we will put that all together and dive round by round into what I deem the “perfect fantasy football draft” based on my favorite players for the 2024 NFL regular season. For specific reference on which players I’m higher on vs. others, I strongly recommend you view my ‘Top 150’ fantasy rankings below.
They are based on half-PPR scoring and updated for offseason injury news, depth chart adjustments and recent roster cuts for all 32 teams. Now, without further adieu, it’s time to cue the ever-popular meme, “The perfect fantasy football draft doesn’t exi —” ..
. Let’s assume, for the sake of this exercise, that no player falls past his ADP. I’ll also create a rule that in the first 12 rounds, we’re not allowed to take any player more than one full round ahead of his ADP (12 picks ahead, to be exact).
We will also assume this league is a 1 QB / 2 RB / 3 WR / 1 TE / 1 FLEX format and half-PPR scoring. Now let’s get busy: The pick (No. 9): A.
J. Brown (WR). Unlike last year, where I preferred a late-round pick to draft either one or both of CeeDee Lamb/Amon-Ra St.
Brown, this year, I prefer as close to a top-nine pick as possible. A.J.
Brown is my favorite late-round target for this top nine, but I’d also be happy to land Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson if they fall inside this consensus top 10. Break glass in case of emergency plan? Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua. Let’s assume we get lucky and get pick No.
9, and Brown is the last player on the board in our top tier of RD1. That means we’ll also have the fourth pick of RD2, and so on. Backup plan if getting picks 10-12: Garrett Wilson (WR), Puka Nacua (WR) or Jahmyr Gibbs (RB).
The pick (No. 16): Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR).
If you miss out on one of Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson in RD1, then I’m targeting either Jahmyr Gibbs or De’Von Achane, two second-year RBs with immense upside both on the ground and through the air, in RD2. I also don’t mind going WR-WR to start my draft, depending on who falls. A backup plan for your first RB could also be Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor or Derrick Henry.
I’m not drafting any of those guys in RD2 if I took an RB in RD1, though. I want at least one WR, if not two, out of my first two picks this year. If Marvin Harrison Jr.
is still here at his ADP, then I’m drafting him, no question. He’s a borderline RD1 talent, in my opinion, this season. Backup plan: De’Von Achane (RB), Nico Collins (WR) or Mike Evans (WR) The pick (No.
33): Jaylen Waddle (WR). I want to draft at least 2 WRs in Rounds 1-3. My favorite targets at wideout in RD3 this year, according to FantasyPros home-league ADP, are Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk (assuming he remains in San Francisco), Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp and Jaylen Waddle.
The Dolphins could lead the league in passing efficiency in 2024. Backup plan: Cooper Kupp (WR), DK Metcalf (WR) or DJ Moore (WR) The pick (No. 40): Kenneth Walker (RB).
The Round 4-6 range is where I’m finally willing to plunge into QB/TE, although I’m not trying to force it. I still prefer DJ Moore, DK Metcalf and DeVonta Smith to Lamar Jackson or Trey McBride, according to ADP. I’m not willing to take James Cook here unless we’re talking full PPR scoring.
At pick No. 40, I’m tempted to reach a tad and get my guy Anthony Richardson, who led the league (by far) in both fantasy points per start — and points per dropback) last season. I want at least one elite (rushing) QB this season and one elite TE, and ‘A-Rich’ comes at a much steeper discount than Jalen Hurts/Josh Allen.
But in this case, I’m willing to wait at least one or two more rounds to grab a similar QB with elite rushing upside. All indications are that Kenneth Walker could be an absolute workhorse in Seattle this season, and the Seahawks offense could be set up for a major breakout under new OC Ryan Grubb. Backup plan: Malik Nabers (WR), Anthony Richardson (QB) or James Conner (RB).
The pick (No. 57): David Montgomery (RB). This round is absolutely LOADED with talent and guys I LOVE.
This is also part of the draft where you can start to argue that groups of players could (and should) be drafted a full round earlier. It’s also where we get into a range of heavy value at RB where more than a dozen players project as potential top-10 fantasy backs. The Lions should again boast one of the top offenses in football this year and could be in quite a few run-first game scripts.
David Montgomery was already the RB13 in fantasy points per game last season, and with Jahmyr Gibbs currently nursing a nagging hamstring injury, Montgomery could again flirt with top-10 RB status, a pick of 57 overall here, no less. Backup plan: Rashee Rice (WR), Tee Higgins (WR) or Kyler Murray (QB) The pick (No. 64): Tank Dell (WR).
Tank Dell was the WR16 in fantasy points per game (half-PPR scoring) in 2023, and now he’s going off the board as the WR29 despite entering what is known to many young wideouts as a ‘year two breakout season.’ All preseason indications and camp reports show he’s fully past the leg injury he suffered last season as well, and C.J.
Stroud can’t seem to stop raving out by the young guy. Sure, Stefon Diggs is now in town. Still, he’s on a one-year deal, will be 31 in November and is coming off the most inefficient season by far in his career as he completely tailed off in Buffalo despite being the only viable WR target on a Josh Allen-led offense.
Backup plan: Calvin Ridley (WR), Raheem Mostert (RB) or Zack Moss (RB) The pick (No. 81): David Njoku (TE). David Njoku was fantasy’s No.
1 TE over the second half of last season. I’d much rather get him in RD7 than spend heavy capital on LaPorta in RDS 3-4. Rashee Rice would also be a more-than-viable target here, but since we have 4 WRs already, I’m willing to bypass a WR5 for a few rounds and get an elite TE nearly five full rounds past where Sam LaPorta and Travis are going.
Backup plan: Jaylen Warren (RB), Xavier Worthy (WR) or Tyjae Spears (RB) The pick (No. 88): Jayden Daniels (QB). If I don’t get A-Rich early, then I’m targeting Jayden Daniels in this range for a similar QB rushing profile.
Daniels rushed for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in two LSU seasons. His 1,134 rushing yards last year would’ve been third-most ever in a season by an NFL QB, and Washington has fully committed to letting him run the show in 2024 for his rookie season. Backup plan: Ladd McConkey (WR), Jordan Addison (WR) or Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR) The pick (No.
105): Chase Brown (RB). Chase Brown flashed big-play ability and borderline elite receiving chops as a rookie (14.4 yards per grab), and he now enters a Bengals backfield that is ripe for the taking in 2024.
Cincinnati signed Zack Moss in the offseason, but he’s going nearly 30 picks ahead of Brown in home league drafts right now, according to FantasyPros ADP. Brown has flex value even in a timeshare with Moss. If Moss were ever to miss time, then Brown could be one of those rare backs past pick No.
100 that could help win your league as an upside RB2 with room for more. He was a workhorse college back at Illinois and should have no problem shouldering a heavy workload if needed. As long as Joe Burrow stays healthy, both Moss and Brown could be viable starters throughout the season.
Backup plan: Dallas Goedert (TE), Jerome Ford (RB) or Jameson Williams (WR) Related Articles Sports | Drake Maye ‘absolutely getting better’ in final stretch of Patriots training camp Sports | Jets Mailbag: Will Haason Reddick and Jets come to an agreement before start of season? Sports | Done panicking? Here’s the truth: Daniel Jones is Giants’ best hope despite concerning preseason return Sports | Las Vegas Raiders claim former UConn star Jackson Mitchell off of waivers Sports | NFL Notes: Patriots betting big on Jerod Mayo’s coaching staff The pick (No. 112): Brian Thomas Jr. (WR).
We want our benches loaded with breakout potential late in the season, and Mr. Brian Thomas Jr. is already locked in as a starter in what could be an extremely pass-heavy Jaguars offense.
JAX lacks a true No. 1 “X” wide receiver, meaning that Thomas has a viable path to leading the team in targets by year’s end, or at least rival Christian Kirk in that department. It doesn’t hurt that he led the FBS in receiving scores in 2023 and had the second-best WR 40-yard dash time.
Backup plan: Blake Corum (RB), T.J. Hockenson (TE) or Caleb Williams (QB) The pick (No.
129): Romeo Doubs (WR). There’s been a steady WR drumbeat coming out of Packers camp this summer, and it’s surprisingly been focused on the WR who is being drafted third on the team in fantasy drafts: Romeo Doubs. Doubs became somewhat of a safety valve (and target hog) for Jordan Love last season, amassing 105 targets and nine touchdowns and only getting better as the year progressed, including 10 catches for 234 receiving yards in two playoff games.
He’s been leading the current GB wideout corps in snaps so far, too, as we’ve seen Christian Watson cede snaps to Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed sometimes leaving the field in 2-WR sets. Backup plan: Zach Charbonnet (RB), Chuba Hubbard (RB) or Rashid Shaheed (WR) The pick (No. 136): Rico Dowdle (RB).
DAL stood pat in the draft (and free agency) and only brought back Ezekiel Elliott on a minimal veterans deal. There’s a good chance Rico Dowdle becomes this team’s RB1 very soon and that matters. In a similar role last year, Tony Pollard was a borderline RD1/RD2 pick and finished as a top-20 RB despite what many considered a disappointing season.
That’s the beauty of drafting for ADP value here. If Dowdle comes anywhere near the top 20 in 2024, he’s an absolute smash in RD11 at this draft spot. Backup plan: Ty Chandler (RB), Jaylen Wright (RB) or Joshua Palmer (WR) The pick (No.
153): Adonai Mitchell (WR). I strongly considered the aforementioned Dontayvion Wicks here for this specific draft, but instead, I’ll settle on an elite rookie prospect profile for our seventh WR. Mitchell slipped a bit in the NFL draft due to some personality concerns, but the athletic traits and raw skills remain in droves.
Mitchell graded as 96th percentile or better in his burst score, speed score and 40-yard dash among this year’s rookie WR class, according to PlayerProfiler, and boasted a 92nd percentile catch radius. He’s already slotted to be cemented in the Colts’ top 2-3 options in the receiving game under Shane Steichen’s pass-happy scheme. Backup plan: Dontayvion Wicks (WR), Deshaun Watson (QB) or Tyler Allgeier (RB) The pick (No.
160): Jaleel McLaughlin (RB). Jaleel McLaughlin has elite burst and speed despite going undrafted out of Youngstown State in 2023. But we know Sean Payton always has ‘his guys,’ and McLaughlin is absolutely one of them heading into 2024.
Bo Nix threw to his RBs at an insane clip in college, and in RD14, past pick 150, McLaughlin gives us a big-play potent, high-upside flex play after ranking sixth in the NFL in explosive run rate and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt last season. Did I mention he’s the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher? He’s a speculative add given his small stature and non-existent draft capital, but at pick 160, it’s a no-brainer. Backup plan: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
(RB), Hunter Henry (TE) or Taysom Hill (TE) The pick (No. 177): Ray Davis (RB). Buffalo has shown its willingness to pull the plug on James Cook at any given moment.
Enter Ray Davis, a college workhorse from Kentucky who rushed for 1,000+ yards in back-to-back seasons and has already all but wrapped up the team’s RB2 job in training camp. Davis didn’t flash elite upside at the combine, but he caught 29 passes in each of his last two seasons and can step in and be a high-volume running back from day one if James Cook were ever to get hurt, all while playing in a high-octane Bills offense. Backup plan: Geno Smith (QB), Braelon Allen (RB) or Michael Wilson (WR) The pick (No.
201): Bucky Irving (RB). Bucky Irving put out some impressive film during his time at Oregon while also racking up 80+ in his last two collegiate seasons. All reports out of training camp in Tampa Bay have also pointed to him essentially securing the RB2 job behind Rachaad White.
He looks to be an ideal fit under new OC Liam Coen’s system as well, and his 90th-percentile college target share (13.1%) shows that he has an excellent chance to step in on day one and become a reliable pass-catcher for Baker Mayfield & Co. Backup plan: Roschon Johnson (RB), Darnell Mooney (WR) or Jermaine Burton (WR) If your league has extra bench spots and goes deeper than 16 rounds/200 picks, then here are some deep sleepers and players past an ADP of 200 that I’m also targeting.
Remember that for leagues that start only 1QB/1TE, I often leave my drafts with just one at each position unless we have close to 20 roster spots. Know your leaguemates tendencies and plan accordingly, of course, but in most cases, it’s simply not a necessary strategy: Sam Darnold (QB): We saw Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens put up borderline top-10 fantasy weeks last season in this same Kevin O’Connell scheme. Whose to say Darnold can’t do the same? Massive upside here for a second QB with an ADP past 200 right now.
Backup plan: Daniel Jones (QB) Jordan Mason (RB): Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell are both hurt right now. Heck, they have both been hurt on and off for the past three seasons. While I rarely bet on players to get hurt or stay hurt, I do like to capitalize on late-round handcuff stashes.
Jordan Mason has generated all the positive buzz this summer from beat reporters in his quest to take command of the team’s RB2 job. Backup plan: Malik Washington (WR) Andrei Iosivas (WR): Just call him “Yoshi ..
. vas” — yes, that’s how you actually pronounce it. The second-year wideout out of Princeton was a sixth-round draft pick just last year, but he has a bevy of elite athletic measurables, including a 91st-percentile speed score and 96th-percentile catch radius.
Reports from Bengals practices show that he locked up the team’s WR3 job months ago, and he’s already being groomed as their future WR2 if Tee Higgins doesn’t receive the franchise tag next season. Backup plan: Jalen Nailor (WR) Colby Parkinson (TE): The Rams inked Parkinson to a $22.5 million deal, and he’s expected to assume the team’s TE1 role after Tyler Higbee suffered a torn ACL in last year’s playoffs.
Parkinson’s massive size (6-7, 252 pounds) makes him quite the red zone target for what looks to be one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses in 2024. We’ve already seen Higbee post top-10 fantasy seasons in this scheme, so why can’t Parkinson himself come close this year? As a late-round dart throw, I’m more than willing to find out myself. Backup plan: Tucker Kraft (TE) — Demario Douglas (WR): Could lead the Patriots in receiving and rack up 100+ targets while manning the slot if he stays healthy .
.. — Wan’Dale Robinson (WR): Third-year slot man for the Giants is now fully healthy and coming off 60 catches in 15 games last year .
.. — Demarcus Robinson (WR): One injury to either Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp could vault Robinson into weekly starter territory .
.. — Jalen Tolbert (WR): Has seemingly won the battle for Dallas’ WR3 job this season and could even rival Brandin Cooks for targets .
.. — Greg Dortch (WR): All the preseason rage has been around the shifty Dortch, who has flashed in each of the last two seasons .
.. — Drake Maye (QB): It’s only a matter of time before Maye starts under center, bringing with him 1,147 rushing yards from 2022-2023 .
.. — Jalen McMillan (WR): Has already beat out Trey Palmer for TB’s WR3 job and was impressive in high-powered college offense .
.. — Ja’Lynn Polk (WR): Another 2024 Washington WR product who, if all things break right, could be NE’s WR1 by year’s end .
.. — Marvin Mims Jr.
(WR): He let us down as a sleeper candidate last year, but the elite speed and high draft capital are still there ...
— Will Shipley (RB): Was a workhorse at Clemson and is already competing for Barkley-handcuff duties with uninspiring veteran Kenny Gainwell ...
——— Chris Dell is the founder of BettingPredators.com and a former fantasy football and sports betting lead analyst for ESPN 97.5.
Chris recently won first place out of 235 analysts in the FantasyPros Fantasy Football NFL Draft Accuracy rankings competition. He’s also our sports editor at the Post-Gazette. ___ (c)2024 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Visit the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette at www.
post-gazette.com Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC..
