As we’ve all come to expect for the last few months, the home and away season is officially going right down to the wire – a team’s whole 2024 campaign could be made or broken by this round alone. There are still nine teams in the running to play in September, if you don’t count Collingwood’s mathematical-only, preposterous assignment – and results from eight of the nine games are going to have a crucial bearing on how the finals series unfolds. Here is what your team needs to do to not only achieve their best possible finish.
.. but also avoid their worst-case scenario.
1. Sydney (vs Adelaide @ the SCG) Best Case: 1st Worst Case: 3rd (but highly unlikely) The Swans did all the hard work at the start of the season to set themselves up for a catch-me-if-you-can campaign, and even through their nightmare run of five losses in six matches, they haven’t been caught. A win over Adelaide will simply be enough to secure top spot and the minor premiership.
More AFL Most likely, even a loss will be good enough as well, as the only two teams that can catch Sydney are Port Adelaide and GWS. Both will need huge wins AND a big loss by the Swans to make up 12.1 and 14.
6 percentage points respectively to dislodge Sydney from the top. It’s a bit of a fantasy scenario. Most likely: 1st 2.
Port Adelaide (vs Fremantle @ Optus Stadium) Best Case: 1st (but highly unlikely) Worst Case: 4th The Power have a virtually impossible chance of stealing the minor premiership, but we’ll skip over that. There is also a very marginal chance of Geelong thrashing West Coast at home by a triple-figure margin, meaning a big loss to the Dockers could drop Port as low as fourth, behind the Cats on percentage; but that’s nearly as unlikely. The Power already know they’ll get a second chance with a top-four berth guaranteed, but basically, they’re pretty much playing for a home qualifying final when they travel away to Fremantle, who themselves are fighting for finals.
Win a Ziggy BBQ for Grand Final day, thanks to Barbeques Galore! Enter Here. A win will most likely see them finish second, as long as GWS’ winning margin against the Western Bulldogs doesn’t blow out enough to overtake them, with just a 2.5 percentage point margin between them in second and third.
But playing in the last game of the round, Port Adelaide will know exactly what they need to do, Most likely: 2nd Connor Rozee celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images) 3. GWS (vs Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium) Best Case: 1st Worst Case: 4th It’s virtually a near-identical situation to Port Adelaide: Sydney is realistically too far ahead to catch, but if the Power lose, the Giants would swap places with them and finish second if they can best the Bulldogs.
The situation with Geelong is also interesting, given their percentage margin is a little closer than between Port and the Cats. That means, if the Cats do a real job on West Coast on Saturday, the Giants will be nervous if the Bulldogs start to pull away. Let’s not go down the path of suggesting tanking, but if GWS did drop to fourth, it wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Giants.
With Sydney all but guaranteed top spot, they could stay in their home city, as opposed to travelling to Adelaide to take on Port with a preliminary final on the line. It’s more likely, though, that the Cats win but by not enough for even a GWS loss to be enough to change their placings. Most likely: 3rd Toby Greene was pinged for holding the ball for this.
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Geelong (vs West Coast @ GMHBA Stadium) Best Case: 2nd Worst Case: 8th Chris Scott will simply be trying to win and win big – that’s the Cats’ only way of making ground. But to climb into the top three, or even challenge for a home qualifying final, would rely on Port and GWS losing just as heavily as the Cats win. The Giants may be catchable, but the Power are surely a step too far, as Ken Hinkley could just go all-out defence to avoid a blowout knowing all the permutations in the final match of the round.
However, there’s another side of the coin, and it wouldn’t totally be unexpected given Geelong’s unpredictability in 2024 – West Coast could win. If this happens, given they boast the worst percentage of any of the current top nine, Geelong would slide down into elimination final territory, though they are assured of finals at least given they’re six points clear of the ninth-placed Fremantle; then, it would depend on how many out of Brisbane, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton can win to overtake them. If they all win, a loss will send the Cats to eighth.
Yikes. Most likely: 4th Brad Close celebrates a goal with Gryan Miers. (Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images) 5.
Brisbane (vs Essendon @ the Gabba) Best Case: 4th Worst Case: 9th After being as high as second a few weeks ago, the Lions will be now be watching the Cats-West Coast game with interest before running out to face the Bombers. A win by Geelong will lock them out of the top four, but a win from the Eagles will give Brisbane a second chance at finishing fourth – if they win. It’s likely, however, that they and Geelong will both win – that would have them finishing fifth, exactly where they are now.
A loss to Essendon, however, would see the Lions needing all of the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton to lose – AND for Fremantle not to overcome a large and most likely insurmountable percentage gap in their win over Port – to stay fifth. If all win, and Fremantle do jump over Chris Fagan’s men on percentage, the Lions could miss finals altogether. But I’ve probably got more chance of hitting the jackpot at Crown than for this scenario to unfold.
Most likely: 5th Neale with a beauty and the Lions have started the second half FAST ⚡ ???? Watch #AFLPiesLions LIVE on ch. 504 or stream on Kayo: https://t.co/4YDJJ2x76q ✍️ BLOG https://t.
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com/JppujaXWL8 6. Western Bulldogs (vs GWS @ Mars Stadium) Best Case: 4th Worst Case: 9th In the unlikely situation that the Cats and Lions both lose on Saturday, the Bulldogs can jump into the top four with a win. If only one wins, then the Dogs could finish fifth, but both, as expected, win, then sixth is the highest they can finish.
It’s unlikely that the two other teams on 52 points – Hawthorn and Carlton – can overtake Luke Beveridge’s men in that regarded, sitting 12 and 13.1 percentage points behind respectively; so should all three of those teams win, the Dogs would almost certainly still hold sixth. A Bulldogs loss, though would leave them hoping the Hawks, Blues and Freo don’t all win, or they’ll be out of the eight.
And even if they get lucky, they would finish seventh or eighth if one or two of them salute – and given the Hawks play North Melbourne, surely at least one will leapfrog them. Most likely: 6th Marcus Bontempelli celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images) Hawthorn (vs North Melbourne @ UTAS Stadium) Best Case: 4th Worst Case: 9th Like the Western Bulldogs, the Hawks can still make the top four if the most unlikely of results play out.
For this to happen, Geelong, Brisbane and the Bulldogs would all have to lose, while Carlton’s winning margin would have to not be sufficient to overtake them on percentage. It’s more realistic for Sam Mitchell’s men to rack up a cricket score against North Melbourne in Tasmania, and then hope the Bulldogs lose to GWS, which would jump them up into sixth. A huge win against the Kangaroos could bring percentages into play, but there is a 12-point gap between the Hawks and Dogs to bridge, so in all likelihood they’d need a GWS win in Ballarat to secure a ‘home’ elimination final.
Either way, no matter what the exact number is, it’s a near certainty that Hawks will be playing finals – a situation many thought was unrealistic after the first 5-6 rounds. And best of all, a win all but guarantees them either a double chance, or far more likely, an MCG final – to lose that, they’d need the Dogs and Carlton to win and the Blues, who’d know all the permutations, to beat St Kilda by enough to overcome a percentage differential that currently sits at a mere 1.1 Most likely: 7th Chol gets the clever one-two to work ???? #AFLHawksTigers pic.
twitter.com/5Fczi1E4n5 Carlton (vs St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium) Best Case: 4th Worst Case: 9th Remarkably, the eighth-placed Blues can still make the top four, but would need Geelong, Brisbane and the Bulldogs to lose, and for Hawthorn to either be beaten by North Melbourne or win by a margin small enough for a slender percentage gap to be reeled in. In short, they’d need a series of misfortunes to befall their rivals on a scale not seen since Mr Burns tried to put together a baseball team.
The Blues-Saints game is the second last of the round, so Carlton will know what they need to score to overtake the Hawks and if the Bulldogs have lost to GWS in the game immediately prior. But their goal probably has to be to just take care of business against the in-form Saints, which locks up a September berth and guarantees no 2022-style heartbreak. A loss to Ross Lyon’s side would open the door for Fremantle, whose game against Port Adelaide immediately follows this one, to leapfrog them into eighth and deny Carlton finals.
Most likely: 8th Tom De Koning and Matthew Kennedy celebrate. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images) Fremantle (vs Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium) Best Case: 6th Worst Case: 9th Starting from ninth, the only way Fremantle can make finals is to win. But even a victory will not guarantee them a top-eight spot, if all Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton win as well.
There is, however, a chance they can jump as high as sixth if all three of those teams lose, or finish seventh or eighth if only one or two win. Playing the last game of the round is both a blessing and a curse: they will know whether they remain in the hunt by the first bounce on Sunday evening, but that could mean their fate is already sealed before they get a chance to force a finals berth. Most likely: 9th As for the rest, Collingwood in 10th is technically still a chance of finals.
.. but would need to beat Melbourne and have one of three teams (the Bulldogs, Hawthorn or Carlton) lose by a heavy enough margin to bridge a margin of between 10-23 percentage points, as well as Fremantle losing.
That probably means a win by triple figures, and a loss by one of those teams of the same. I’ve mentioned a few impossibilities so far in this article, but the premiers featuring in September is the most unlikely of all. That leaves the only game of the round with no bearing on the finals, Richmond against Gold Coast – however, Adam Yze’s men could overtake the Kangaroos and avoid the wooden spoon (and give up access to the No.
1 draft pick) if thy win. That is, if the Tigers can somehow upset their former coach Damien Hardwick with a victory enough to bridge 2.7 percentage points to North, who are likely to get towelled up by Hawthorn.
Sports opinion delivered daily Predicted ladder after Round 24 9. Fremantle 10. Collingwood.
