They say time flies when you're having fun, and it must be true. Because believe it or not, MLB's six-month season is down to its last six weeks. But as much as every team wants to finish strong, none of them has an empty list of worries.
We're going to identify the single biggest red flag for all 30 teams in MLB. We're not talking about things that have happened so much as things that are happening. As in, right now with the end of the 2024 season inching closer every day.
Different concerns naturally apply depending on whether a team is a contender or, well, not a contender. For the former, anything that could trip up a run toward or deep into the playoffs sets off alarms. For the latter, it's about current events that don't bode well for the future.
We'll go in alphabetical order by city, checking off three at a time. Note: All playoff odds are according to FanGraphs . Arizona Diamondbacks: Their Rotation Is Healthy, But Not Yet Effective Record: 69-54, T-2nd in NL West It isn't easy to project bad vibes onto the Diamondbacks right now.
They're 30-11 run since June 29 has reinforced that the defending National League champions are, in fact, still dangerous. All the same, the rotation only has a modest 4.13 ERA amid this brilliant stretch of baseball.
Getting everyone healthy was a big step, but only sophomore righty Brandon Pfaadt can be accurately described as "hot." That must change between now and the playoffs. Atlanta: The Rotation Has Seen Better Times Record: 64-58, 2nd in NL East At no point has this season not been a challenge for Atlanta, but they've at least been able to lean on their rotation to paper over the offense's disappointing performance.
But for how much longer? Reynaldo López is hurt , Charlie Morton has been getting knocked around and Max Fried's first three starts off the injured list have resulted in 12 earned runs and 11 walks in 13.2 innings. It's all putting more weight on Chris Sale's shoulders.
Baltimore Orioles: The Bullpen's Rough Time Continues Record: 72-51, 2nd in AL East The Orioles are undeniably a playoff-caliber team, but the question of whether they have a World Series-caliber pitching staff is only looming larger. The rotation is hit-or-miss after Corbin Burnes, while the bullpen presents an even more pressing concern. It has a 5.
14 ERA since the All-Star break, as well as a 6.15 ERA just in August. Craig Kimbrel has notably been slumping.
.. again .
Boston Red Sox: Their Pitching Has Really Gone South Record: 64-57, 3rd in AL East More than a few headlines earlier in 2024 covered what a pleasant surprise the Red Sox's pitching was turning out to be. And at the time, they were all valid. But now? Yeesh.
Boston hurlers rank last in MLB with a 6.14 ERA since the All-Star break, for which it hasn't helped that they've served up 12 more home runs than any other staff. If this team misses the playoffs, there's your culprit.
Chicago Cubs: Is It Too Early for a Dansby Swanson Postmortem? Record: 60-63, 4th in NL Central Though the Cubs are technically still in the NL wild-card race, their chances of making the playoffs are a mere 4.4 percent . So, let's make like Jed Hoyer and look to 2025.
The Cubs do have reasons to believe they can make a better run at October next season, but one of them is predicated on their $177 million shortstop having a rebound year. And to this end, it's not merely Swanson's .648 OPS that gives off palpable decline energy.
Chicago White Sox: Their Best Trade Chips Are Losing Value Record: 30-93, 5th in AL Central The sheer badness of the 2024 White Sox has been both laughed at and litigated enough already, so let's spare this dead horse from further kicks. All they can do now is attempt to steer back in the right direction, ideally by cashing in what trade assets they have left this winter. Unfortunately, ace Garrett Crochet seems out of gas and center fielder Luis Robert Jr.
is in a slump. Even after slamming two homers on Friday, he's still only batting .170 since July 19.
Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene Can Only Do So Much Record: 60-62, T-2nd in NL Central The Reds will probably end up being an also-ran in the NL wild-card race, but at least they're more in it than the Cubs are right now. In any case, it bodes well for both now and later that Greene is breaking out as a proper No. 1 starter.
It bodes less well that he's on an island unto himself in Cincinnati's rotation, which has gotten a 5.35 ERA since the break from Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Carson Spiers. Cleveland Guardians: Starting Pitching Remains a Major Issue Record: 72-50, 1st in AL Central The Guardians are still in first place, but a lead that once got as high as 9.
0 games is now down to just 3.0 games over the Minnesota Twins. This was inevitable, given just how consistently Cleveland's starting pitching has been trying to trip up the team's contention run.
And on the beat goes, as only Tanner Bibee (1.61 ERA) is standing out in a rotation that otherwise has a 4.75 ERA in the second half.
Colorado Rockies: The Pitching Has Never Felt More Hopeless Record: 45-78, 5th in NL West Between Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck, the Rockies have fun core of 20-somethings coming together on the offensive side. Seriously, excitement is warranted. As for the pitching.
..ah, well, it entered Friday with the highest ERA in the franchise's history at 5.
61. Not exactly a badge of honor, and the fact that the Rockies have the league's lowest strikeout rate hints they're losing ground in their 30-year quest to solve Coors Field. Detroit Tigers: Where Is the Hope for This Offense? Record: 59-64, 4th in NL Central It's not as longstanding as the Rockies' pitching conundrum, but the Tigers have been a weak offensive team basically ever since the shine wore off Miguel Cabrera's prime.
Even this year's "progress" has only elevated them to ninth in the American League in scoring, and Riley Greene isn't going to be able to do it all going forward. And despite what Scott Harris says , it's time to set aside hopes of Spencer Torkelson emerging as a savior. Houston Astros: All Is Well.
..Except with Jose Altuve's Power Record: 65-56, 1st in AL West The Astros entered Friday having won eight in a row, and every day that passes brings them nearer to the returns of Justin Verlander and Kyle Tucker.
Still, it doesn't take much effort to force concern about Altuve's power outage. He slugged .473 through his first 80 games, but since then he has only seven extra-base hits and a .
353 slugging percentage. It could be nothing. It could also be that his hand still isn't right.
Kansas City Royals: How Long Can They Get Away with Treading Water? Record: 67-55, 3rd in AL Central The Royals are still ostensibly one of the biggest surprises of 2024, but the notion of them as a winner is beginning to become old news. In 69 games dating back to May 26, the Royals are three games under .500 at 33-36.
And despite their efforts to fix it, the bullpen has actually gotten worse in going from a 4.21 ERA before the break to a 4.58 ERA after it.
It all amounts to a slow crawl toward October. Los Angeles Angels: It Probably Can Get Worse Than This Record: 53-69, 4th in AL West With Shohei Ohtani gone and Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon old and banged up, the Angels would ideally be looking to transition to the next generation. And they technically are, but it's not going smoothly.
Save for Zach Neto, players who are meant to be building blocks have either fallen flat (Jo Adell and Reid Detmers) or merely risen to the rank of role-player (Nolan Schanuel, Logan O'Hoppe). Meanwhile, the farm system is in disrepair . Los Angeles Dodgers: The Rotation Continues to Feel Thin Record: 72-51, 1st in NL West The Dodgers are riding high after Mookie Betts' return, yet the same question that applied in 2023 applies again in 2024: Do they have the starting pitching to go deep into October? Tyler Glasnow is back on the IL, this time with elbow tendinitis .
Gavin Stone is stumbling with a 6.12 ERA over his last seven starts. Otherwise, neither Clayton Kershaw nor Walker Buehler is ace material anymore, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto's status remains up in the air .
Miami Marlins: They Don't Even Have Trade Chips to Cash In Record: 45-77, 5th in NL East The Marlins are sort of in the same boat as the White Sox, but at least there's a chance the latter will cash in Crochet and Robert this winter. Who are the Marlins supposed to cash in? Jesús Luzardo's value is kaput by way of a season-ending back injury . And because he's coming off Tommy John surgery, it's hard to fault the Marlins for not wanting to trade 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.
Milwaukee Brewers: Are They Only Good within the NL Central? Record: 70-52, 1st in NL Central The loss of Christian Yelich for the year hurts, but it would hurt more if the Brewers weren't seeing Jackson Chourio have a perfectly timed breakout in his stead out in left field. The bigger worry here is a big picture one, and it concerns how Milwaukee's record within the NL Central (25-14) obscures their record against NL East and NL West foes (18-24). As they're likely to be the NL Central's lone representative, this could be an issue in October.
Minnesota Twins: What's Gotten into the Bullpen? Record: 69-53, 2nd in AL Central The Twins have made a series of strong pushes for the AL Central lead throughout the year, including one that is ongoing. They're 11-5 since July 31. Out of nowhere, though, the bullpen has become an issue.
Whereas it had a 3.51 ERA in the first half, it's at 5.18 for the second half.
Even Jhoan Duran has been taking his lumps, allowing nine hits and five runs in his last 8.2 innings. New York Mets: The Offensive Surge Has Stalled Record: 6 3- 59, 3rd in NL East Nobody has ever confused the Mets' pitching staff for one of the league's finest.
If they make it to October, it's because they'll have hit their way there. That was working out just fine for a while, but no longer. After scoring 5.
8 runs per game over their previous 44, the Mets have averaged a more modest 4.4 runs in their last 19 games. There's no good time for a slump, but this is an especially bad time for one.
New York Yankees: Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s Injury Could Really Hurt Record: 73-50, 1st in AL East Chisholm was everything the Yankees could have hoped for after he came over from Miami, posting a 1.062 OPS and seven homers in 14 games.
But now that he's on the IL , there's one less wall between the Yankees and their problems. The biggest is their volatile pitching staff, which has a 5.10 ERA since June 15.
More recently, both the rotation and the bullpen have regressed since the break. Oakland Athletics: So Much for a Couple Promising Young Hitters Record: 52-70, 5th in AL West The A's are saving face with a 22-14 record since the start of July. But the promise of this stretch feels empty, in part because some key young hitters are having growing pains.
Lawrence Butler was a sensation for a second there, but he's hitting only .185 since July 17. The struggle is otherwise ongoing for Zack Gelof, who is hitting .
198 overall with an AL-leading 137 strikeouts. Philadelphia Phillies: Suddenly, the Pitching Needs to Get It Together Record: 72-50, 1st in NL East The Phillies are still one of the leading World Series contenders in MLB, but there's good reason to believe the recent drop in their odds is the real deal. A pitching staff that was so rock-solid in the first half has thus far been a liability in the second, posting a 4.
83 ERA that ranks among the league's worst . They badly need Cristopher Sánchez to get it together and for Ranger Suárez to make a strong return . Pittsburgh Pirates: What They're Missing Is Obvious Record: 57-64, 5th in NL Central The Pirates were in the thick of the NL wild-card race when July flipped to August, but it's amazing what kind of holes can be punctured by 10-game losing streaks.
That four of those losses were by one run is all too familiar for the Bucs, who have played in a whopping 43 one-run games. It speaks to their slim margin for error, and more pitching on top of what they already have won't solve that as much as an impact bat. San Diego Padres: Not Everyone Is Having Fun Right Now Record: 69-54, T-2nd in NL West The Padres have won 19 out of their last 23, so giving them the sourpuss treatment is about as difficult as walking around with an actual sourpuss in the beautiful city of San Diego.
Still, not everyone on the Padres is hot. Luis Arraez's bat isn't cooking, while Matt Waldron (7.36 ERA), Jeremiah Estrada (5.
23 ERA) and Adrian Morejon (6.00 ERA) have pitched poorly amid the winning stretch. Not major fault lines, perhaps, but ones that bear monitoring.
San Francisco Giants: 60 Percent of Their Rotation Is Cold Record: 62-62, 4th in NL West Meanwhile in San Francisco, the Giants are putting on a textbook display of hanging around. They've never been more than three games over or six games under the .500 mark.
But if the Giants are going to make the run they need to make, they need help in the rotation for Blake Snell and Logan Webb. They're crushing it, while the team's other primary starters (Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdson) have a 5.68 ERA in the second half.
Seattle Mariners: It's Still the Offense Record: 63-60, 2nd in AL West With the Mariners, it's not merely that the offense is scoring 3.9 runs per game and batting an MLB-low .215.
It's also that the latter figure is trending down , with little hope in sight. Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner have only energized the lineup so much, and Julio Rodríguez just can't stop hurting his right ankle. It all amounts to poor omens for a team that otherwise has a championship-caliber pitching staff.
St. Louis Cardinals: Basically Nothing Is Working Right Now Record: 60-62, T-2nd in NL Central The Cardinals' playoff odds have utterly tanked , going from a high of 55.6 percent on July 8 to just 4.
3 percent in the here and now. And it's hard to say they deserve better. The Cardinals have been outscored by 29 runs just in August, wherein their offense has a .
679 OPS and their pitching has a 5.57 ERA. Barring a major course correction, they're as liable to finish in last place as they are to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rays: Who Will Carry This Offense in 2025? Record: 60-61, 4th in AL East It's admirable that the Rays have stuck around despite being undermanned all year. Yet the question is when they'll be properly manned again, especially on offense. With Arozarena and Isaac Paredes gone via trades and Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe potentially headed the same way this winter, the lineup lacks a readily apparent long-term anchor.
Junior Caminero will hopefully be up to it, but that's a lot to put on a 21-year-old. Texas Rangers: How Long Will the World Series Hangover Last? Record: 56-67, 3rd in AL West Whatever hope there was of the Rangers going on a season-saving run is pretty much tapped out. They're mired in a 5-15 stretch and their playoff chances stand at 0.
3 percent . There are reasons to believe in a turnaround in 2025, including the likelihood that there's a lot more to mine from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. But when you think about Adolis García's sharp decline and what free agency could do to this pitching staff, doubt creeps in.
Toronto Blue Jays: There Should Already Be Doubts About 2025 Record: 57-65, 5th in AL East The Blue Jays stopped short of blowing it up at the trade deadline, choosing to hold on to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and almost everyone else they control through 2025. Noble, but also foolhardy.
With veterans like George Springer and Kevin Gausman seemingly cooked and young hurlers Alek Manoah and Ricky Tiedemann facing long recoveries from surgeries , the Blue Jays have real barriers between them and short-term success. Washington Nationals: So Much for MacKenzie Gore's Breakout Record: 55-68, 4th in NL East The James Wood-CJ Abrams-Luis García Jr. trio is a good one to build a lineup on, but the Nationals also need their arms to pan out if they want to bust out of their rebuild.
Gore was doing his part for a minute there, but a 6.98 ERA in his last nine starts has blown his progress to smithereens. Along with the injuries to Josiah Gray and top prospect Cade Cavalli, there's a cloud hanging over this staff's potential for 2025 and beyond.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference , FanGraphs and Baseball Savant ..
