“As a result, crude imports have fallen by 440 kbd year on year. China doesn’t disclose its stockpiling numbers, but reports have suggested that a significant share of imports has flown into inventories. Further, refinery runs have consistently been below expectations, weighing on CPP exports and the broader clean tanker market.
However, a factor that isn’t as easy to spot in the numbers is that China has been adjusting the sourcing of its crude. Imports from far flung regions have shrunk, while imports from nearby sources have grown”, Gibson said. Source: Gibson Shipbrokers According to the shipbroker, “in 2019, Chinese crude imports from ports to the west of the Suez Canal amounted to 3.
8 mbd, and 5.2 mbd from ports to the east of the Suez Canal. So far in 2024, crude imports from ports west of Suez stand at 3.
1 mbd, and 7 mbd from ports east of Suez. Whilst distances vary between ports west of Suez and east of Suez, this shift has likely resulted in lower tonne mile demand than could otherwise have been expected”. “Large geopolitical changes have occurred since 2019, with notable shifts in trade flows as a result.
China’s zero covid policy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the de facto closure of the Red Sea to mainstream tankers by the Houthis have all strongly impacted seaborne crude flows. A significant share of the global oil trade is now transported by the grey fleet, which transports sanctioned oil flows from countries such as Russia, Iran, and Ve.
