Sri Lanka is a tear-drop shaped island nation in the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, the tears of the nation have run dry, but the turmoil continues. Since Sri Lanka’s independence from the Great Britain in 1948, the country has fought two major civil wars sacrificing a lakh lives, went through a killer Tsunami in 2004, which claimed another 25,000 lives, and very recently a massive public unrest named ‘Aragalaya’, which forced the President to flee in middle of the night.
Sri Lankan people know how to suffer yet smile. They say it is a cursed nation with great natural resources and unmatched beauty. Every time the nation looks stable, something unexpected happens dragging down everything with it.
Sri Lanka is voting on Saturday (September 21) to elect the new President. The people have high hopes like they have every time. This is the first election Sri Lanka is witnessing since the economic collapse of the country just two years ago.
Proving the sceptics wrong, Sri Lanka has staged a great comeback, stabilising the economy to some extent in record two years. Unlike all previous Presidential elections, the current election is the most complicated and witnessing a four-cornered fight. Incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe is seeking mandate as an independent candidate, Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayaka popularly known as AKD, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the youngest Namal Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) are three other important candidates in the fray.
Perceptions favour AKD of JVP. The support he is getting on the ground has sent shock waves among all established players. Promising to eliminate rampant corruption, nepotism, economic inequalities and class conflicts, Anura claims he is just a week away from taking charge of Sri Lanka as its new President.
His public rallies are attracting massive crowds across the country. Till recently, JVP was a fringe political force in a country dominated by two parties — former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s SLPP and Sajith’s SJB. The JVP, once a banned terrorist organisation for two guerilla insurrections in the past, claims it has put its bloody past behind to try democratic means to achieve power.
This time, the majority of voters, mainly the poor and working class, seem to be backing Anura, expecting a complete overhaul of the decadent system that has plagued the nation since its Independence. A shrewd politician and rabble rouser, Anura is playing to the gallery, selling endless multi-colour dreams to the people who have suffered enough in the hands of other political parties known as ‘Colombo 7 Club’, the wealthiest and swankiest area where all these leaders reside. The same Colombo 7 class which controls nation’s economy is worried about its future under Anura Presidency.
Anura is promising to make Sri Lanka another Sweden, a wealthy welfare nation. But the ground realities show an entirely different situation. A nation which has barely come out of a bankruptcy, neither has the resources of Sweden, nor the willpower.
But Anura making it to the highest office on the island can’t be ruled out. His Comrades have already declared an Anura win. Anura’s main rival Sajith Premadasa is banking on the vote share SJB polled in the previous elections and the party workers spread across the country.
Sajith is promising a slew of populist things like his neighbours across the Palk Strait. His campaign managers are upbeat about a Sajith victory on Saturday. They dismiss Anura as a mere media and social media hype.
Incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe knows he is up against two formidable rivals who have successfully convinced the majority about the “failures” of the government. Unlike the two others, Ranil does not have established workers on the ground. He is depending on the 60 odd MPs and ministers who have defected to his side from Mahinda Rajapaksa’s SLPP to bring voters to the polling booth on Saturday.
Ranil is warning the people that his defeat will derail the economic recovery and Sri Lanka will face a situation much worse than Aragalaya. Sri Lanka has 25% Tamil and Muslim voters who are minorities. Both Sajith and Ranil are eyeing these votes.
Ranil has a better chance of cornering most of them. If the minority votes go to only one candidate, it can end the dream of Anura. Minorities are wary of AKD of JVP, given its past records concerning them.
The fourth candidate in the fray Namal Rajapaksa of SLPP is under no pressure to win. He is just 38 and contesting to save his party and prepare for the Parliament elections likely to be held within the next three months. First time since 2005, a Rajapaksa is not contesting to win the Presidential poll.
The voters of Sri Lanka will have to choose between Anura, who is promising a Sweden-like welfare state, Sajith, who is riding high on populism, and Ranil who is promising a stable economy and prosperity in the future..
