In the face of , many of the world's major economies are trying to engineer higher birth rates. or signup to continue reading Policymakers from , and , for example, have all adopted so-called " in the belief that doing so will defuse a demographic time bomb. These range from tax breaks and housing benefits for couples who have children to subsidies for fertility treatments.
But here's the thing: low - or, for that matter high - birth rates are not a problem in and of themselves. Rather, they are perceived as a cause of or contributor to other problems: With low birth rates come and a ; high birth rates mean and . Moreover, birth rates are , and efforts to do so often become coercive, even if they don't start out that way.
As , we also know that such efforts are usually unnecessary. Manipulating fertility is an inefficient means of solving social, economic and environmental problems that are almost always better addressed more directly through regulation and redistribution. According to the most likely scenario, will peak around the beginning of 2084 at about 10.
3 billion people - approximately 2 billion more than we have today. After that, the global population is projected to stop growing and will likely shrink to just below 10.2 billion by 2100.
Yet many countries are already ahead of this curve, with in the next decade. And that has prompted concerns among some nations' economists over economic growth and old-age support. In some instances, it has also prompted nativist fears about " .
As of 2019, 55 countries - mainly in Asia, Europe and the Middle East - had . The US does have but no policies directly aimed at raising birth rates, according to the UN, which . Even so, in recent years a has emerged in the US, drawing heavily from a range of ideologies, including .
Among the voices pushing for pronatalist policies are and influencers , who warn that the human population . Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump , and his running mate, JD Vance, has been a rare voice on the floor of Congress . The pronatalist movement is, we believe, inherently misguided.
It is premised on the belief that ever-larger populations are needed to spur economic growth, which alone will lift individuals and communities out of poverty. But absent direct state intervention, this , often at the expense of workers and consumers. Seen this way, pronatalism is a .
It relies on new entrants to produce returns for earlier investors, with the burdens , who are responsible for the bulk of childbearing and child-rearing, often without adequate medical care or affordable childcare. For nearly a century, governments have used access to birth control and abortion as levers with which to try to adjust their population growth rates, but usually in the other direction: making birth control and abortion more widely available - and often pushing them on people who wanted more children - . Such policies were implemented in numerous countries between the 1960s and 1990s to stimulate economic growth, with the most extreme example.
Ironically, while high birth rates were , today low birth rates are seen as a drag on economic growth. Advocates of efforts to reduce birth rates have pointed to the beneficial effects of family planning services. But critics warn that - offering it as a means to the end of slowing population growth rather than an end in itself - makes it vulnerable to being taken away if population growth is deemed too slow.
Indeed, several of the countries that now restrict access to birth control and abortion, including South Korea and Iran, once promoted them in order to reduce their birth rate. In 1968, the declared that couples had the right to decide the number and spacing of their children. At that time, the growth of the world's population was at its all-time high of just over 2 per cent per year.
But if humans have the inherent right to control their reproductive lives, it follows that governments need to protect that right when birth rates are low as well as when they are high. It is, in our view, incumbent on policymakers to use other interventions to reach economic and social goals. And these more direct approaches can be effective.
For example, in the US, we saw child poverty cut in half during the COVID-19 pandemic as a result of a higher tax credit, when Congress allowed the supplemental credit to lapse. To date, pronatalist policies have largely focused on subsidising the cost of child-rearing and helping parents remain in the labor force. While enormously beneficial to parents and children, such policies have had little effect on birth rates.
For example, Italy's - a comprehensive program that provides family allowances, increases paternity leave, supplements the salaries of mothers and subsidizes child care - has not stemmed the country's . As fertility rates continue to drop, and as popular anxiety about population collapse heightens, governments are beginning to take more draconian measures. Along with promoting assisted reproductive technologies, .
China's State Council recently announced supposedly to promote "women's development." Around the same time, to abortion, sterilization and contraception for the express purpose of increasing the birth rate. Those who deny racist, nativist or religious intentions in promoting pronatalism - especially in the US - usually advocate for it on economic grounds.
Their reasoning is that declining fertility produces a top-heavy age structure. In the US context, this means a large number of elderly people collecting Social Security relative to the number of working people paying into the system. Experts have been projecting the for decades.
But the truth is that the US does not need more babies to keep Social Security afloat. Rather, policymakers can increase the size of the working-age population through pro-immigration policies and can increase the amount of money flowing into Social Security by lifting the . Governments can provide education, contraception and other health care services, not because doing so will reduce birth rates but because these are vital components of a progressive, fair-minded society.
And they can provide parental leave, child tax credits and high-quality childcare, not because doing so will increase birth rates but because it will help the children who are born get the best possible start in life. Seen through this lens, pronatalism offers a hollow-ringing promise that simply having more people will solve social and economic problems faced by a nation's current population. But that amounts to borrowing from the future to pay the debts of the past.
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