Pune: India Meteorological Department ( IMD ) on Friday said a significant monsoon revival in Maharashtra was unlikely up to the end of Aug. Medha Khole, head of the weather forecasting division at IMD, Pune, told TOI, “All four subdivisions of Maharashtra are experiencing dry conditions . This situation is likely until Aug 22.
The probability of significant monsoon revival until Aug 22 remains low.” Khole said, “A low-pressure area has formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal. However, its projected northerly to northwesterly trajectory is unlikely to contribute to monsoon revival in Maharashtra.
The system’s movement pattern is not conducive to generating rainfall over the state.” The absence of an offshore trough, combined with a weak pressure gradient over the west coast, has diminished the strength of monsoon winds. “As a result, there is minimal moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea,” she said.
The IMD’s Extended Range Forecast (ERF) for the period after Aug 22 indicates a potential increase in rainfall activity. “However, this is not expected to be a dramatic revival comparable to previous intense episodes. While isolated to scattered light rainfall may occur across all four subdivisions, widespread or intense rainfall is improbable over Maharashtra until Aug 22,” Khole said.
The ERF for Aug 22-29 suggests improved rainfall prospects for parts of the state, with a positive rainfall anomaly predicted. Though this period is likely to witness better rainfall distribution and intensity compared to the current week, it is not anticipated to be a spectacular monsoon revival. On the broader monsoon patterns, Khole said, “For the week ending Aug 22, significant rainfall is expected over north India, east India and south Kerala.
A circulation developing near Kerala, close to the Arabian Sea, is likely to result in substantial rainfall activity over Kerala. Concurrently, the low-pressure system is expected to positively influence rainfall in northwest India.” She added, “At present, the monsoon is active over parts of northwest India, including Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.
However, it remains weak over central India (including Maharashtra), north peninsular India, the entire west coast (including Gujarat) and northeast India.” We also published the following articles recently IMD forecasts reduced monsoon activity across Maharashtra till August 15 Rainfall intensity in parts of Maharashtra, including Pune, decreased recently, with the IMD attributing this trend to a significant reduction rather than a monsoon lull. Most districts, aside from Hingoli, experienced surplus or normal rainfall.
Heavy rains were notable in Pune, Satara, and Kolhapur's ghat sections, with Tamhini Ghat logging over 7,000mm this season. 'Extreme rainfall' risks to rise for India: Study Extreme rainfall events in India were projected to rise significantly by 2071-2100, with the Western Ghats and central India most affected, according to an IITM study. The research attributed this rise to high carbon dioxide emissions and indicated increased risks for eastern coastal regions and the Himalayas.
Pakistan: Met Department predicts more monsoon rains from Aug 14 The Pakistan Meteorological Department predicted monsoon rains from August 14 to 18, affecting upper and middle areas including Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and parts of Punjab. Coastal Sindh might see light rain and cloudy weather. Various regions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are also expected to experience showers.
Experts highlighted Pakistan's vulnerability to extreme weather due to climate change..
