The Marin economy is staring three core structural challenges in the face that must be addressed to ensure continued prosperity for the next generation. First, our county has a rapidly aging population. Despite the pandemic-induced influx of young families relocating to the natural beauty of Marin, our median age continues to tick up, increasing from 47.
1 years old in 2020 to 48.1 years old in 2023, according to U.S.
Census Bureau data. This makes Marin the state’s oldest county among those with a population of 250,000 or more. By contrast, the median age in California is 37.
2. Second, our North Bay region consistently lags the state of California and other comparable regions in net new job creation. In 2022, the North Bay was dead last among large regions around the state, in terms of regional job growth.
If you separate Marin out from the rest of the North Bay counties, the picture does not improve. Over the past 10 years, according to data from the California Employment Development Department, while California grew jobs by 6.3%, Marin lost 3.
7% of the jobs located in our community. Third, official forecasts from the California Department of Finance project a greater than 6% decline in Marin’s population from the start to the end of the 2020 decade. Taken together, these three demographic and economic trends should cause alarm for all Marin residents.
There are massive implications for our future, from an eroding tax base to the shuttering of schools to the lack of economic mobility that comes from the inability to create jobs in our community at a healthy clip. Yet, the rising momentum of the North Bay startup community should provide reason for optimism that these challenges can be positively impacted through the collective action of community leaders building Marin’s economic future. Startups play an outsized role in job creation – according to a 2022 U.
S. Census Bureau study looking back over the past fifty years, the job-creation rate “is notably higher for young firms than for old ones — the Net Job Creation Rate has hovered around 15% to 20% for younger firms ..
. but was roughly 0% and often negative for more established firms.” North Bay investors need to boost local startups and aim to combat the North Bay’s job losses.
Doing so will create high-paying jobs and the types of careers that our children will return home for. We need to invest local capital into our community’s best and brightest entrepreneurs. We must leverage startups to kickstart a North Bay job creation renaissance.
The vision could lead to: • Robust job creation: Dozens of high-growth startup companies line the Highway 101 corridor from Sausalito to Healdsburg and employ thousands of residents. • Thriving downtowns: Jobs are shifting from San Francisco (often to remote working) and push workers into local downtowns, stimulating Marin’s economy. • Greater opportunity: Startup jobs create multipliers as growing companies hire local businesses for services and improve economic opportunity for all Marin residents.
• Younger population: New economy jobs will attract workers 18 to 35 years old to make Marin home and help stem our forecasted population decline. • Healthier environment: Local jobs boost the viability of commuters who walk, bike and take public transportation, which will improve traffic and better our quality of life and the planet around us. • More housing: High-paying jobs improve the economics of proposed housing projects and help ease the community’s housing deficit.
This future is entirely within our reach given the talent and resources available across the Marin community. Now, it’s incumbent upon us to take the necessary steps to turn this into reality. Let’s all do our part in embracing local entrepreneurs who are taking risks to become the next generation of local job creators – let’s learn their names and harness the power of this community to ensure they are successful, brightening the future for us all.
Zachary Kushel is founder and managing partner of Marin Sonoma Impact Ventures, a regional venture capital fund based in Corte Madera. Learn more at msivfund.com .
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