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What is the best way for Australia to beat England in a rugby union match in London? Make England play most of the rugby, soak up the pressure, stop attacks at source, slow or foul the ruck and kick the ball in awkward spots. Since starting to play Tests against each other in 1909 the Wallabies have played England at Twickenham 29 times. The average score? 19-16.

In the 11 matches won by Australia at Twickenham, the home side only once scored more than 15; about half the time they were in single digits. The immediate takeaway is how closely related wins over this old foe (in England) are to Wallaby defensive brilliance, not hard pitch big scoring. In contrast, when England has beaten Australia lately, the hosts have scored freely (40, 32, 37, 25, 30, 37, 40, and 39 points among the last ten wins) with the lowest in London being 20 in 2013.



An English score between 15 and 20 appears to be a zone of Aussie interest. Some of the greatest moments in Australian rugby history are founded in stingy defence, ruck negation, lineout steals, and desperate cover tackles. In 1987, held England to six points at Concord Oval in Sydney, to six points in the 1991 World Cup final as the Wallabies took the crown, and forced Jonny Wilkinson to make an extra time drop goal in 1999 to take the Cup, squeezed South Africa in a 2011 quarter-final dominated by David Pocock, and the best Bledisloe Cup results in the last decade or so have correlated with keeping the All Blacks under 20y points.

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