We've made it to the final week of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season. While just about all the playoff teams are decided, this final week will still determine which ones have byes in each league and which clubs will meet in the first round of the postseason. Before the final days of the regular season, here are the latest predictions on how the 2024 postseason will play out.
AL East: New York Yankees Led by the one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Yankees are going to hold off the Baltimore Orioles and win the AL East title. They feel a bit like the 2002 San Francisco Giants, who made it to Game 7 of the World Series led by the dominant duo of Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent. Still, there are a few major questions for manager Aaron Boone's squad to answer in the postseason.
1. What type of production will the Yankees get from their lineup outside of Judge and Soto? Jazz Chisholm Jr. feels like the most likely player to step up and provide star-level production in addition to Judge and Soto.
2. Can Gerrit Cole pitch at an ace level? The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner seemed to turn the corner with a 1.93 ERA across five starts in August, and he just threw a complete game against the Oakland A's on Friday.
3. Do the Yankees have someone capable of closing in the playoffs? Clay Holmes has had a disastrous second half, which could leave any of Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle and Jake Cousins to try to close out games. AL Central: Cleveland Guardians (have clinched division title) Stephen Vogt is likely to win AL Manager of the Year in his first season at the helm in Cleveland.
It's fair to wonder whether the Guardians have enough starting pitching depth to make a deep postseason run, but the rest of their roster is really good. José Ramírez is one of this era's best players, and he has put together his typical finish-in-the-top-five in MVP voting season. Josh Naylor has 31 home runs and 105 RBI.
David Fry was a surprise All-Star. If Steven Kwan comes back from the injured list and looks like the player he was in the first half of the season, they have enough offense to win. The advantage that the Guards have over every other team in the sport is owning one of the most dominant bullpens in modern history.
Sure, the rotation that has almost no certainty behind Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively. But if there's ever been a team equipped to win using bullpen games in the postseason, it's the 2024 Guardians. Closer Emmanuel Clase has a 0.
63 ERA and is having one of the best seasons a reliever has ever put together. Also having great seasons out of the bullpen? Cade Smith (1.96 ERA), Hunter Gaddis (1.
53 ERA), Tim Herrin (1.90 ERA) and Eli Morgan (1.64 ERA).
AL West: Houston Astros You just can't seem to kill the Astros. Sure, they've benefitted from playing in what's proved to be a weak division. But it would be foolish to overlook at team that has reached the ALCS seven years in a row.
This isn't a perfect lineup, but if Kyle Tucker heats up, there's plenty of thump to make a run. Yordan Álvarez is one of the best hitters in the sport, and it feels like this might be the last opportunity for Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve to get a third title together. You could also add Justin Verlander to that mix, but the 41-year-old has a 5.
55 ERA in 16 starts this season. Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown figure to be at the top of manager Joe Espada's postseason rotation, and you could make a case for going with rookie Spencer Arrighetti over Verlander at this stage. If the Astros get strong starting pitching, though, they have a bullpen with quite a bit of postseason experience, led by Josh Hader.
Bryan Abreu, Tayler Scott, Ryan Pressly and Héctor Neris are all strong options out of the bullpen as well. NL East: Philadelphia Phillies At their best, the Phillies might be the top team in the sport, but they've been just above .500 in the second half of the season after going 62-34 prior to the All-Star Break.
After two deep playoff runs, can manager Rob Thomson's squad finally get over the hump and win the World Series? This is one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, particularly when they see fastballs. But they are probably too reliant for their own good on Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber hitting home runs. Alec Bohm will drive runs in other ways, but this is a team that will strike out a ton when things aren't going right, with Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and Turner among those who can go cold in a hurry.
On the positive side, the rotation trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez is as good as the sport has. Even if Ranger Suárez might only be a one-time-through-the-order arm in the postseason, having an All-Star as your No. 4 starter will be quite the advantage.
He could also be a weapon out of the bullpen in the postseason, as he was in 2022. The question for the Phillies is whether they'll be able to avoid having their bats go ice-cold as they did in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS a season ago. If they do, there might be a parade down Broad Street.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (have clinched division title) Manager Pat Murphy is going to run away with NL Manager of the Year, as he's led the Brewers—who many thought would struggle to compete after trading away Corbin Burnes in February—to a division title. It may not be to the same extent as the Guardians, but the Brewers have a super-impressive bullpen. Devin Williams is one of the most dominant relievers the sport has to offer, and he should be relatively fresh entering the postseason considering he didn't make his season debut until late July after missing time with stress fractures in his back.
Murphy has some other really good options to get the ball from the starter to Williams, with Trevor Megill and Jared Koenig. Milwaukee may not have a great starting rotation, but some combination of Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Frankie Montas and Colin Rea isn't close to the worst starting rotation in the playoffs. The Brewers lost former NL MVP Christian Yelich for the season, but rookie Jackson Chourio has a .
944 OPS since the All-Star Break. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins have previously reached the World Series with other clubs. William Contreras is arguably the best hitting catcher in the sport.
There's a lot to like here. NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani might be the greatest player in MLB history, and it's hard to argue with a lineup that includes him, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández. However, after Jack Flaherty, the starting rotation here is really thin.
Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone aren't expected to return this season. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw is trying to return from the IL, but there's no guarantee he'll be back from left big toe inflammation. Even if he does, he had a 4.
50 ERA through seven starts this year. So, there's a lot of pressure on Flaherty, Walker Buehler (5.63 ERA), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (just off the IL) and Landon Knack.
If there's a positive on the pitching side, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made one of the best pre-trade deadline moves in acquiring reliever Michael Kopech from the Chicago White Sox. The 28-year-old has a minuscule 1.29 ERA through 21 outings since joining the Dodgers, and he could be a real weapon for manager Dave Roberts in the postseason.
Again, though, it's hard to get past the starting pitching. The Dodgers were a team built to win 100-ish games in the regular season. But do they have a roster equipped to compete in the playoffs? It's a legitimate question.
AL Wild-Card Winners 1. Baltimore Orioles The bet here is that the Orioles will hold on to win the top wild-card spot in the AL, but it's hard to feel great about them heading into the playoffs. Craig Kimbrel was designated for assignment last week, and whether it's Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto and Cionel Pérez, there are questions about Baltimore's ability to close out wins later in October.
The starting-rotation depth after Corbin Burnes is also pretty thin, especially if Grayson Rodriguez doesn't return from a lat strain. 2. Kansas City Royals Of the three wild-card teams in the AL, the Royals may be set up best to go on a deep playoff run.
Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo represent one of the best one-two punches in the sport, and Brady Singer and Michael Wacha are capable starting options later in a series. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez lead a lineup that may be a little top-heavy, but they would get a huge boost if first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino returns in the playoffs.
Lucas Erceg has eight saves in 10 attempts since being acquired from the A's. 3. Detroit Tigers The race for the final wild-card spot between the Tigers and Minnesota Twins will come down to the wire, but Detroit has played much better baseball in the second half and gets to finish with three games against the Chicago White Sox, so it gets the edge.
The Tigers might be a year—and a couple free-agent additions—away from being able to go on a deep playoff run. Then again, with AL Cy Young Award front-runner Tarik Skubal likely to get the ball to open any playoff series, Detroit could be dangerous in a short series. NL Wild-Card Winners 1.
San Diego Padres Jackson Merrill's monster second half has allowed the Padres to be baseball's best team since the All-Star Break, with the star rookie joined in a loaded lineup by Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Arraez and Jurickson Profar. President of baseball operations A.
J. Preller has constructed both a strong bullpen trio (Robert Suarez, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott) and a very capable starting rotation (Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, Michael King and Yu Darvish). It's impossible after watching how the Padres have played in the second half not to take them seriously entering the postseason.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks went on a shocking run to the World Series last year, and it's not hard to envision them doing so again this October. Eugenio Suárez and Corbin Carroll have both had big second halves, making a lineup that also includes Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson pretty dangerous.
In the bullpen, A.J. Puk has been dominant since being acquired from the Miami Marlins.
What Arizona's playoff hopes will likely come down to is whether Merrill Kelly and/or Eduardo Rodríguez can get hot in the rotation, to go along with Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt. 3. New York Mets There may just be too many injuries for the Atlanta Braves to claim this final wild-card spot.
Instead, we'll lean with the division-rival Mets, who are 14-5 in September. Given how Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and David Peterson have pitched recently, the Mets' starting rotation is probably better than you think, even if Kodai Senga doesn't return. There are enough big bats in manager Carlos Mendoza's lineup—Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and J.
D. Martinez—that if closer Edwin Díaz continues pitching how he has this month, the Mets could surprise some teams in the postseason. ALWCS 1: Astros over Tigers The Tigers are hot, and if they are able to line Tarik Skubal up to pitch in Game 1 of the ALWCS, it would certainly give them a shot to take a 1-0 lead in a best-of-three series.
However, this Astros team is so deep with postseason experience that it wouldn't be a surprise if they are able to wear Skubal out so he's out of the game by the sixth and win it late, thanks to a strong start by Framber Valdez and a big hit by at least one of Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez or Alex Bregman, all of whom have long postseason resumes. Even if the Tigers are victorious in Game 1, don't put it past Houston—who will host all three games at Minute Maid Park—to win consecutive games and advance to the ALDS. ALWCS 2: Royals over Orioles There are legitimate concerns about both the starting rotation and bullpen of the Orioles, which makes a team that once seemed like it might be the favorites to win the AL pennant difficult to bet on.
On the flip side, Cole Ragans can match up with Corbin Burnes, and the Royals have much more certainty behind their ace, with the ability to start Seth Lugo in Game 2 and Michael Wacha or Brady Singer in Game 3. It's mildly concerning to consider what would happen if Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez go cold for a game or two in such a short series, particularly if Vinnie Pasquantino isn't able to return for the first round.
Still, the Royals have much better vibes entering the postseason than the Orioles, so we'll roll with that. NLWCS 1: Brewers over Mets There's just something about the Brewers. Manager Craig Counsell left for the division-rival Chicago Cubs in the offseason.
They traded away a former Cy Young winner in Burnes during spring training. Milwaukee has have been without Brandon Woodruff all season. It survived the first half of the season without Devin Williams and the second without Christian Yelich.
For at least another round, we're projecting the magic will continue. Led by Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, William Contreras and a great bullpen, the Brewers will edge out the Mets. Milwaukee will host all games in the best-of-three series, which gives them quite the advantage.
For the Mets, reaching the postseason would be a successful campaign. Certainly, it's not impossible their season goes on beyond this point. If not, it could be impending free agent Pete Alonso's final time in a Mets uniform.
NLWCS 2: Padres over Diamondbacks It would almost be unfair to have this series so early in the playoffs. Both of these teams feel like they could go on deep playoff runs if they defeat their divisional rival. If only this could be a best-of-seven series.
Nonetheless, we're going to lean with the Padres here. They'll host the series as the No. 1 wild-card seed.
Perhaps if it was at Chase Field—where bizarre stuff seems to happen—the Snakes would have the advantage. But they have been the best team in baseball in the second half of the season, and they should be able to take two of three at Petco Park. Both teams have really impressive lineups when at full strength.
The tiebreaker here is that it's easier right now to trust San Diego's likely starting pitching trio of Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove and Michael King than whatever Arizona will go with after Zac Gallen, be it Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt or Eduardo Rodríguez. Again, though, if the Diamondbacks' starting rotation gets hot, they could go on another run. But there's just too much uncertainty right now.
ALDS 1: Yankees over Royals What a series this would be. Aaron Judge vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
, almost certainly the one and two finishers in the AL MVP race. We'll lean Yankees for a few reasons, although this feels like a series that could go all five games. The Royals probably have the advantage in the pitching staff, but Game 1 of the ALDS would be just four days after Game 1 of the ALWCS.
That means they could have to wait until Game 2 to have Cole Ragans on the mound in the ALDS, and Game 3 for Seth Lugo. If Gerrit Cole is right, having him on the mound against either Michael Wacha or Brady Singer would be an advantage. So, too, would the fact that Games 1, 2 and 5 would be at Yankee Stadium.
It's fair to say the Yankees lineup is overly reliant on Judge and Juan Soto, but a similar criticism could be made of the Royals with Witt and Salvador Perez, specifically if Vinnie Pasquantino is out. Jazz Chisholm Jr. feels like a player who could explode during his first postseason in the Bronx.
ALDS 2: Guardians over Astros No disrespect to Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but it isn't exactly a one-two rotation punch that screams "deep playoff run." But the starting rotation in Houston isn't so imposing that the Astros would have a massive leg up. As noted, all the Guardians need to do is have a lead through the first five or six innings, and in theory they'll be able to turn to the likes of Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanuel Clase to close out the game.
That helps to alleviate some of the concerns about a lack of big-name starting pitchers. If the Astros were eliminated in this round, it would be the first time since 2016 that they didn't reach the ALCS. It could also be the final game with Houston for franchise icons Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander, both of whom will be free agents after the season.
NLDS 1: Phillies over Padres The Padres might be a better team than the Diamondbacks, but the Phillies were eliminated by Arizona in the NLCS last year and lost three of four at Chase Field in August, so they would likely prefer this draw. While this will be the third consecutive year in the postseason for Philadelphia, it hasn't had a first-round bye in the last two years. There are benefits to not having to play in the first round of the playoffs, but you run the risk of getting rusty.
The good news for the Phillies is they have as good of a pitching staff as anyone in the postseason with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez. The bullpen quartet of Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estévez and Orion Kerkering—the first two of whom were All-Stars this season—will also help keep the Phillies in things even if the offense takes a little time to heat up. For the Padres, this series will represent a chance for some members of their roster to avenge losing the 2022 NLCS to the Phillies.
However, Fernando Tatis Jr. was suspended then, Mike Schildt was the skipper in St. Louis and a good chunk of the roster looked different, as is the case with A.
J. Preller-built teams. Citizens Bank Park is such a strong home-field advantage that we'll lean Phillies here, but don't be surprised if this series goes all five games.
NLDS 2: Brewers over Dodgers Say what you will about the starting pitching in Milwaukee, but right now Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale likely represent a better group than what the Dodgers will be trotting out. Michael Kopech, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia are key members of a bullpen that manager Dave Roberts will have to work some magic with to make a deep postseason run given the shortcomings in the starting rotation. Milwaukee, though, has at least as good of a group in the arm barn with Devin Williams, Trevor Megill and Jared Koenig.
There's no question a Dodgers lineup led by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is imposing. But while it was pre-Ohtani, they have lost in the NLDS in each of the last two years after having first-round byes. Between that history and concerns about the starting rotation, it's not hard to envision another early postseason exit for L.
A. What will be interesting to consider here is whether the Dodgers would make a change at manager if Dave Roberts presides over a team that has another early playoff departure. There could be a conversation to be had about whether things have run their course with Roberts, although he may just not have a good enough group of healthy starters to make a deep postseason run.
ALCS: Yankees over Guardians Admittedly, there's not a team in the AL that feels like it's leaps-and-bounds better than the competition. Almost every club has at least one legitimate concern, which makes this the most difficult year to try to project the postseason in some time. So, what's the tiebreaker? The Yankees have arguably the two scariest hitters in baseball in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
If there's a duo capable of getting hot and covering up some of the other holes in the lineup, it's them. Granted, Cleveland has greatness in its own right, between one of the best bullpens in modern history and José Ramírez at third base. But the longer postseason series get, the harder it becomes to overcome a lack of established big-game pitchers.
A bullpen can pitch four or five innings per game in the best-of-five ALDS, but Stephen Vogt's relievers will run out of gas if that's how they are used in a subsequent best-of-seven ALCS. This isn't meant to overlook concerns in New York. Not only is the Yankees lineup top-heavy, but reliever Clay Holmes has also had a nightmarish September and the starting rotation has depth concerns.
Again, though, this is a year with a clear favorite in the AL. So, there's logic in betting on Judge and Soto. NLCS: Brewers over Phillies An underrated storyline this postseason is the possibility that two years after his bat-spike home run ignited a magical playoff home run for the Phillies, Rhys Hoskins—now a Brewer—could help to halt another Red October in Philadelphia.
Well, that's kind of what we're predicting will happen here. After missing last season with a torn left ACL, the Phillies didn't elect to retain Hoskins this past offseason after Bryce Harper transitioned to first base. Hoskins departed on good terms, but there's no doubt he'd probably enjoy sticking it to his former team on this stage.
It would also help him to make up for what's been an underwhelming first season in Milwaukee, as he's homered 25 times but posted just a .713 OPS. The Phillies looked like a juggernaut in the first half of the season.
They'll still arguably enter the postseason as the favorites to win the NL pennant, but they've looked much more mortal since the All-Star Break. And the concern remains from what happened last year: Can the Phillies win a postseason series if Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner all go cold at once? Is this a team that can win a best-of-seven series if two of the four victories have to come in games where they need to score runs by manufacturing them, as opposed to hitting home runs? Led by Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, William Contreras, and yes, Hoskins, the Brewers are our pick to emerge from the NL in a wide-open year. It would be their first trip to the World Series since they represented the AL in 1982.
World Series: Yankees over Brewers By now, we've pointed out some of the shortcomings of the Yankees, some of which will have to turn into positives for a deep October run. But in one of the most wide-open postseasons ever, it will be the Yankees that emerge with World Series title No. 28, their first since 2009.
This would cement Aaron Judge as one of the inner-circle Yankees, if he isn't already. He is going to win his second AL MVP in three years, already having secured the third 50-plus home run season in a career headed for Cooperstown. This would be the cherry on top for one of the most dominant peaks a slugger has ever had.
Juan Soto, just days after his 26th birthday, will celebrate with his second World Series title in what's still a young career. It would set up him to get at least $500 million in free agency and put pressure on the Yankees to be the club that tops all other bidders in Soto's sweepstakes. For the Brewers, it would be a disappointing end to a magical season, but still one of the greatest campaigns in franchise history.
Willy Adames may well depart in free agency, but they will still be a World Series favorite entering 2025 with both Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff set to return from injury. The truth is, it's difficult to predict how this year's playoffs will pan out, more so than in typical years. Things may feel very different in a week, but that's the beauty of October baseball.
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