WASHINGTON — Four days before Election Day, the government will issue its final snapshot of hiring and unemployment in the United States after a presidential race in which voter perceptions of the economy have played a central role. Yet Friday's report will include some of the most distorted monthly employment figures in years, with job growth having been held down temporarily in October by hurricanes and worker strikes. So just as voters, politicians and Federal Reserve officials are looking for a clear read on the economy, they instead will get a muddied one.
The report arrives as Republican allies of Donald Trump, seeking to cast doubt on the economy's health, have sought to undercut confidence in the credibility of the monthly jobs reports. Trump and his supporters have repeatedly attacked the Biden-Harris administration for the spike in inflation that peaked two years ago before steadily cooling. Despite healthy job growth, few layoffs and low unemployment, Trump has also charged that the United States is a "failing nation" and has vowed that his plan to implement sweeping tariffs on all imported goods would restore millions of manufacturing jobs.
Typically, the monthly jobs data helps clarify how the economy is faring. But economists estimate that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, combined with the effects of the ongoing strike by Boeing machinists, will have reduced hiring last month by a significant number — roughly 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, most of them only temporaril.
