House of the Dragon has closed its doors for the season, but there’s a lot more dragon dancing to come. When that might be still remains to be seen — almost two full years passed between the end of season one in 2022 and the start of the sophomore season. Even if season three comes quicker than that, though, it’ll be a long time to wait to see the conclusion of the season-two finale’s tantalizing cliffhanger ending and everything else that happens next to this crazy, incestuous family and their fiery, bloody civil war.
Luckily, if you don’t want to wait, you’ve just got to consult the history books. House of the Dragon is based on Fire and Blood, author George R. R.
Martin’s faux history of the Targaryen dynasty. (The events are also detailed in The World of Ice and Fire .) We’ve already done a full overview that spoils the entire story as it happens in those books, but what, specifically, can we expect for House of the Dragon ’s third season? The show has already made some notable changes from the source material, but we can still use them as a guide for season three.
Assuming that House of the Dragon will have four seasons — which hasn’t been confirmed but feels about right given the rate it’s moving through the story — it’s not too hard to guess which major events show watchers can look forward to. It’s entirely possible (likely, even) that the show will pace itself in such a way that not all of these will be the subject of their own episode. Some might get folded into others as side plots for timing or budgetary purposes; there are enough battles in the Dance to bankrupt even HBO’s VFX and extras budget, so not every week can be an epic extravaganza.
Some things we expected to happen in season three might get punted to season four — especially if House of the Dragon ends up being five seasons and they need to stretch out the story. But, with all that said, here’s an attempt to predict the major events we can expect to see in season three. (There are spoilers from here on out, obviously!) Season two’s closing montage sets up what should be an incredible action set piece to open the third season, when many of the moving parts that the finale set in motion come crashing together in the Narrow Sea.
Tyland Lannister’s newly forged alliance with the Triarchy, a trio of powerful cities in Essos, gives the Greens the naval power they need to attempt to break the Velaryon blockade that’s crippling King’s Landing and turning the smallfolk against them. The Blacks only get a heads-up this is happening because Rhaenyra’s two youngest sons that she had with Daemon, Aegon the Younger and Viserys, are en route to Pentos when they cross paths with the oncoming armada. In the books, Aegon manages to escape on his dragon, Stormcloud, to Dragonstone and alert his mother, while Viserys is captured by the Triarchy and presumed dead.
In the show, however, both Aegon and Stormcloud appear to be much younger, so unless they’re aged up considerably between seasons, it might not go down this way. The Battle of the Gullet, as it’s known, is the first major test for new Dragonseeds Hugh, Ulf, and Addam, and they’re put to great use against the Triarchy’s fleet. The Velaryon fleet, including Alyn of Hull, also fights valiantly, and they’re able to beat the Triarchy and prevent them from taking any further part in the war.
However, it’s not without cost. Corlys Velaryon’s ancestral seat of High Tide is burned along with many of the riches within. Worse still, Jacaerys , riding on Vermax, flies too low and his dragon crashes into the sea — possibly because it was struck by an arrow.
Jace is then killed by crossbow fire, an ignominious end to the young, ambitious prince. Many book readers expected House of the Dragon ’s second season to end with this epic battle, though that turned out not to be the case — perhaps because they didn’t want to conclude two seasons in a row with one of Rhaenyra’s sons getting killed. Daeron Targaryen, Alicent Hightower’s only son who seemingly doesn’t suck, will finally enter the story.
He was barely mentioned in season one, leading some book readers to wonder if he’d been written out of the adaptation, but some conversations in season two made it clear he still has a part to play. Daeron and his dragon, Tessarion, make their big entry into the war at the Battle of the Honeywine, where he saves the head of House Hightower, Otto’s nephew Ormund Hightower. We might not see this exact battle in the show, as Ormund isn’t yet a known character on HotD .
Ormund will have more to do down the line, so the show might cast a new actor to play him. Otto, meanwhile, was last heard of traveling to Oldtown upon being fired as Hand of the King, which could potentially mean he’ll be around to interact with Daeron and pick up some of the plot. However, a glimpse of Otto in the finale suggests he’s been imprisoned, either on the road or secretly by Aemond, which could make that a moot point.
In any case, Ser Daeron the Daring, as he’s known, will be a factor in the war to come. His biggest moments, however, might not be until season four. Against all odds, Daemon Targaryen managed to rally the Riverlands behind him, and by extension Queen Rhaenyra.
Prince Aemond correctly views this as a threat, so he gets on Vhagar and has Criston Cole and his army mount an attack on Harrenhal. They arrive to find it abandoned, as Harrenhal is wont to be. That’s because the Blacks knew the attack was coming and instead had Daemon’s host go around the Greens, avoiding them entirely.
In the show, they know this because Alicent came to Dragonstone in the finale to switch sides and offer help to Rhaenyra. This turn does not happen in the books, and the implications for Alicent and Rhaenyra’s relationship going forward could potentially lead to some developments that book readers don’t see coming. There are some battles near Harrenhal that we probably won’t see because they’re not too important, aside from maybe getting a chance to check in on the Black-allied North’s slow progress south.
The real significance of Aemond’s assault on Harrenhal is that King’s Landing is undefended, with Alicent laying out a red carpet for the Blacks in the show’s version of events. So Rhaenyra and Daemon hop on their dragons and fly to King’s Landing, with Mysaria and the Velaryon fleet behind them, taking the capital of the Seven Kingdoms without much effort. Aegon, injured as he is, already fled the city with Larys Strong in the season-two finale; in the books, his only surviving heir, Princess Jaehaera, makes it out too.
(He had another son in the books, Maelor, who isn’t in the show .) Alicent, who is seemingly on the Blacks’ side in this adaptation, stays in King’s Landing, as does Helaena . Tyland Lannister is horribly tortured when he won’t give up the location of gold he’s hidden as Master of Coin, and Rhaenyra has Otto Hightower executed.
The Blacks also gain the allegiance of Dalton Greyjoy, the lord of the Iron Islands known as the Red Kraken. He spends the war raiding the Westerlands and the Reach on behalf of Rhaenyra, so it’s possible he could appear in season three if House of the Dragon has room for another new character. It would also not be a shock if he’s omitted or he has only a minor role.
Having been outsmarted, Aemond and Criston need a new strategy. Aemond pulls a Daemon and opts to hang out in the Riverlands hoping somebody will come fight him and his giant dragon while he lays waste to the countryside. He’ll also become very, very close with Alys Rivers , eventually impregnating the seer.
Meanwhile, Criston and his army march south. Before getting too far, he’s beset by a massive Black army made up of Rivermen. Criston challenges the army’s leaders to single combat but they say “nah” and, instead, Criston’s peppered with arrows and dies like a chump before his army is slaughtered in a “battle” known as Butcher’s Ball.
In the book, a Riverlord named Roderick Dustin leads the army, but it’s possible he could be swapped for a character viewers already know, like season-two breakout Oscar Tully. In the books, there’s a fourth Dragonseed in addition to Addam, Hugh, and Ulf. Nettles is a commoner who manages to tame a wild dragon, known as Sheepstealer.
Nettles is not in House of the Dragon , as the season-two finale essentially confirmed that it’s instead Rhaena Targaryen who will be riding a wild dragon. Giving Rhaena Nettles’s plot makes sense on a lot of levels; it means we might get to see Rhaena and Sheepstealer in action at the Battle of the Gullet, and there’s some fun stuff that happens for her at the end of the war. However, there’s one big thing that hopefully doesn’t happen in the show as a result of this change.
In the book, Daemon falls in love with Nettles — a betrayal that drives yet another wedge in his relationship with Rhaenyra. Targaryens love incest, but this seems unlikely even for House of the Dragon . What could happen is that Daemon develops a renewed bond with his daughter, echoing that brief moment when he was a good dad back in season one , and this shifts his priorities away from backing Rhaenyra.
That’s just conjecture, though, as the end of season two makes it seem like Daemon is much more devoted to Rhaenyra after having his Weirwood vision of The Song of Ice and Fire, a show-only invention. With the notable exception of Rhaenyra losing two more sons (remember, she thinks Viserys is dead), the war has been going pretty great for the Blacks so far. That changes when two of the Dragonseeds change sides.
If you guessed that Ulf might become a problem for Rhaenyra , congratulations, you were right. The Greens are determined to take back King’s Landing, so Daeron, Ormund (assuming he’s in the show), and the Hightower army march toward the realm’s capital. They’re on a roll, easily defeating any Blacks they encounter until they reach the town of Tumbleton.
Rhaenyra sends Hugh and Ulf to defend Tumbleton, which is right on the border of the Crownlands, only for them to get intimidated because the Green host is significantly larger than the Black forces. As we already started to see in the season-two finale, Ulf has some authority issues, so this seems reasonable to expect from him, though Hugh seems like a pretty decent guy — if he also switches sides, season three will need to spend some time laying the groundwork for that. Tumbelton falls, the Blacks lose two dragons, but perhaps even worse, the betrayal makes Rhaenyra question the loyalty of her other new dragonriders.
Although Corlys Velaryon vouches for him, Rhaenyra orders that Addam be arrested as a precaution. Corlys tips off his son, allowing Addam and Seasmoke to escape, and is arrested for doing so. (Addam and Seasmoke will be back later, but probably not this season.
) Given that Sheepstealer’s rider is Rhaena, her niece/stepdaughter, rather than a commoner like Nettles, Rhaenyra might have a different reaction. In the book, Daemon is sleeping with Nettles and tells her to escape, further putting a wedge between Rhaenyra and her husband and leaving the Blacks with even fewer dragons. This is one possible stopping point for season three, but two other events in the Dance could also make sense.
Where has the injured Aegon been since fleeing King’s Landing and leaving it undefended against Rhaenyra? Well, turns out that Dragonstone is pretty undefended now, too. Larys smuggles the king to Dragonstone and hides out in secret until Aegon’s dragon, Sunfyre, which had been recovering from his own grievous injuries at Rook’s Rest, joins them. (In the season-two finale, Aegon says his dragon is dead; either he’s mistaken or the show is making a major change.
More likely Aegon is just assuming the worst.) Aegon, Sunfyre, and a meager force are able to take Dragonstone without much of a fight. Only Baela and her dragon, Moondancer, are there to oppose him, but Aegon and Sunfrye kill the dragon and take Baela hostage.
Aegon does take another L, though, as in the fighting, he’s forced to jump from his dragon’s back and he breaks both his legs. Rhaenyra, it’s important to note, has no idea that Dragonstone has fallen. This would be a fitting place for the season to end, too, with the Blacks and the Greens having switched places in addition to having switched some dragons.
But there’s one more possible season-three finale ...
Things are going pretty badly for Rhaneyra after a strong start to the season. In the books, she’s also furious with Daemon because he wouldn’t arrest Nettles as she’d ordered. Feeling adrift and like he has nothing left to lose, Daemon flies to Harrenhal and challenges Aemond to single combat atop their dragons.
The show will almost certainly change the specifics of this, as Rhaneyra has less reason to be suspicious of Rhaena compared to Nettles, and hopefully Daemon won’t have taken his daughter as a lover. Perhaps the show version of Daemon won’t be on the outs with Rhanerya at all, but will instead be driven to go to Harrenhal because of the prophecy he saw when he touched the Weirwood in the season-two finale. In any case, Daemon, riding Caraxes, takes on Aemond and Vhagar.
It’s an epic battle high in the sky above a lake neighboring Harrenhal called the God’s Eye. The dragons lock claws and plummet toward the water only for Daemon to leap off his dragon onto Aemond and plunge his Valaryian steel sword into the prince’s remaining eye just before they all crash into the lake. Aemond and Vhagar die under the water — fulfilling Heleana’s prophecy in the season-two finale that he’s “swallowed up in the God’s Eye” and never seen again.
Caraxes manages to crawl out and into the bowels of Harrenhal before succumbing to his injuries. Daemon’s remains are never found. That’s a lot of action to pack into one season, and in all likelihood, the Battle Above the God’s Eye will probably not be the season-three finale — if for no other reason than House of the Dragon might want to start the next season with more members of the cast alive and able to do press, especially Matt Smith, one of the bigger names on the show.
More likely is the finale ending with the taking of Dragonstone or the fallout of Ulf’s and Hugh’s betrayals. But, even if season three does manage to cover all of this, there’s still plenty of action left in the Dance of Dragons to fill out the fourth season. The Storming of the Dragonpit! The Second Battle of Tumbleton! The Hour of the Wolf! Many more major character deaths! It’s all coming — we’ll just wait until the next finale to spoil it in detail.
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