F1 2024 is back! We are about to awaken from our post-summer break slumber as the Dutch Grand Prix approaches, so our writers have assembled to offer their big predictions for the remainder of the season. Whisper it, but there could even end up being a title race in what has been a thrilling year so far. With 10 races to go, anything could happen yet! Written by Henry Valantine One swallow does not a summer make, but three wins in four races prior to the break has quietly left Mercedes with all the momentum they were looking for after another slower-than-anticipated start to the year.
Hand on heart, who thought after testing we’d be talking at this point of the season about Mercedes having won more races than McLaren? While McLaren has shown multiple times this season they are still, in their words, a ‘young team’ when it comes to competing at the front, Mercedes showed no signs of ring rust when they finally came to fight for wins again. Learning from near-misses and their self-inflicted Hungarian Grand Prix politics will help McLaren in the long run, but Mercedes’ long-earned knowledge of how to win in multiple scenarios will be crucial in such a tight run-in. While McLaren remain confident in their hopes of reeling in Red Bull at the front, part of me thinks it’s still a season too soon for them.
Think of Red Bull themselves in 2009, winning races and getting used to glory before finally getting hold of a title a year after. I could be wrong (I have been many, many times in these predictions before), so take my words with the handful of salt required, but 100 points for P2 is not an insurmountable gap in 10 races for Mercedes, nor even is 142 points to top spot. I know I’m overlooking Ferrari here, given they’re the team in P3 at this point, but they appear to have been leapfrogged in the competitive pecking order.
Who knows? If Mercedes match their current rate of progress, there could even be a run at the ultimate prize yet. Written by Thomas Maher It’s astonishing to think that McLaren’s successes are so long ago – aside from Lewis Hamilton’s maiden title win in 2008, the Woking-based squad hasn’t won the Constructors’ Championship since 1998 – even before either of its current drivers were born! But I suspect that’s going to change this year. While Max Verstappen has enough in hand and will pull out the results necessary to get across the line as Champion, I don’t think the same can be said for Red Bull.
Aside from Red Bull’s upgrades not being a clear step forward for an already hesitating RB20, McLaren’s understanding of its car – having capitalised upon its extra wind tunnel and CFD hours – seems to surpass the understanding Red Bull has of their own concept at this point. The close competition is exposing Perez’s slight pace deficit to most of the top drivers who make up the driver line-ups at most of the squads fighting with Red Bull and the likelihood of him finding the speed and consistency – even if he does have the mental toughness to persevere, as he appears to – is questionable. Both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are performing at their best – the combination of car and drivers is perhaps the most potent of this year and there’s no sign that this momentum can be halted by Red Bull – although Mercedes might seek to give it a try.
Red Bull’s advantage is small – to the point where it almost seems inevitable they’ll be overcome. With two Max Verstappens, the title would be far more assured but this isn’t the situation the team is in and, even if a driver change is made, it’s unlikely whoever slots in can immediately perform at close to the same level as the three-time F1 World Champion at the peak of his powers. It’s on Norris and Piastri not to blow the open goal in front of them.
👉 F1 schedule: When is the next F1 race and where is it being held? 👉 F1 2024: Head-to-head race statistics between team-mates Written by Jamie Woodhouse Go big or go home! But really, is this prediction as wild as it may seem at first glance? With Helmut Marko telling Daniel Ricciardo that he did not meet the criteria for a Red Bull return, despite Sergio Perez’s alarming struggles, how Ricciardo continues to fit into the VCARB team now becomes very unclear, with the order from the top being to revert it to junior status, while Ricciardo can’t even say he is beating Yuki Tsunoda to prove his worth. So, with Liam Lawson waiting in the wings and reportedly requiring a Red Bull seat decision by the end of September or he is free to leave, the writing appears to be on the wall for Ricciardo, who at this stage, could even find himself getting that Red Bull return at Perez’s expense, rather than being totally out in the cold. But Lawson is looking like the future at VCARB and I predict Red Bull seeing no reason to hang around and putting him in the car for Monza, which will kick-off September’s F1 action.
Written by Oliver Harden High-level moves at the sport’s summit tend to happen like this, everyone involved playing it down for months and months until one day the announcement drops almost out of nowhere. Damn! Should have known all along..
. All signs currently suggest that Andrea Kimi Antonelli will replace Lewis Hamilton for F1 2025, but the great luxury of Mercedes’ situation is that they can wait and see what happens at Red Bull – y’know, just in case..
. And what might happen at Red Bull? If the team’s stutters persist (or worsen) across the final 10 races, there will soon come a point when the greater risk for Max Verstappen’s title hopes for next year – let alone 2026 and beyond – is staying where he is. That tipping point will come shortly after the season resumes, when even Max will be powerless to prevent McLaren embarking upon an ominous winning run and create one last sting in the driver market’s tail.
The repercussions? Carlos Sainz will be plucked from Williams as Verstappen’s emergency replacement at Red Bull to confirm that rumoured special clause did exist all along. As for Antonelli, the boy wonder will have a quieter – and more appropriate – start to life in F1 with Williams. Written by Elizabeth Blackstock My fine colleagues have made their predictions for key replacements and big battles in the constructors’ standings, but as the resident American, I’ve had my eye on the home team all season, and I’m predicting that Haas will finish 2024 ahead of VCARB in the constructors’ standings.
Now, we’re not discussing massive margins here. VCARB currently sits at 34 points, seven meager points ahead of Haas — a gap that could be overcome with a singular sixth-place finish. That’s much harder said than done for two teams that have been fighting near the latter half of the grid, but Haas has made some massive leaps forward now that Ayao Komatsu is in charge.
The former engineer has made magic with the team’s budget, transforming dollar bills into improvements and upgrades. Compare that instead to VCARB, which has been hot in the throes of debate about whether or not its drivers will progress to Red Bull Racing, or if they’ll be dropped midseason. That isn’t an environment befitting wholehearted growth and improvement, and the struggle has been clear in their declining results.
Haas, don’t let me down! Read next: Fan Q&A: Get your questions in ahead of the return of F1.
