Accelerating the decline in tobacco smoking globally, by decreasing smoking prevalence from current levels to 5% everywhere, could increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths by 2050, according to a study from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators published in The Lancet Public Health journal. The analysis suggests speeding up progress toward ending smoking could deliver substantial population health benefits over the next three decades. Findings from the study suggest that, based on current trends, global life expectancy will likely rise to 78.
3 years by 2050—up from 73.6 years in 2022. However, if tobacco smoking were to gradually decline from current levels to a rate of 5% in 2050, this would result in one year of additional life expectancy in males and 0.
2 years in females. In a scenario where tobacco smoking was eliminated from 2023 onwards, this could result in up to 1.5 additional years of life expectancy among males and 0.
4 years among females in 2050. In both scenarios, millions of premature deaths would also be avoided. Smoking is a leading risk factor for preventable death and ill health globally, accounting for more than one in ten deaths in 2021.
While rates of smoking have fallen substantially over the past three decades, the pace of decline varies and has slowed in many countries. Cancers, ischemic heart disease , and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are—and will con.
