One year ago , I predicted Connor McDavid would score 146 points in 81 games (1.8 pts-season). In actual fact, the Edmonton Oilers captain delivered 132 points in 76 games (1.
74 pts-game). In the world of projection point totals, that’s close enough for jazz. Reasonable expectations for the 2024-25 Edmonton Oilers highlight three young players who must deliver more than they were able to one year ago.
Advertisement In Stuart Skinner , Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway , this edition of the Oilers has real room to grow. A major discussion point this season is the rumoured plan to fade playing time for the elite talents on the roster. The hope is by resting them, the top talents will have more torque once the playoffs arise.
The projections this season have McDavid and Leon Draisaitl playing fewer power-play minutes but maintaining borderline impossible scoring rates. The depth of the roster will be challenged to outscore with more playing time. The investment in the postseason is a noble one, but it will come at the cost of scoring and possibly outscoring in the regular season.
Here are the individual predictions and projected team totals for 2024-25. The skill forwards The bet here is the Oilers do reduce playing time for the top end but the impact talent cruises past last year’s outstanding totals. The predictions see McDavid falling from 1.
74 pts-game a year ago to 1.67 this season. It’s a minimal change due mostly to less time on the power play.
It’s also true that Edmonton’s captain will turn 28 in January, an age when mere mortals are leaving their peak seasons and beginning the long fade toward the end of their careers. In McDavid’s case, there’s a chance he is more productive at five-on-five with less power-play minutes. Draisaitl maintains his offensive prowess in this model, mostly due to vastly improved linemates (I’m projecting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Viktor Arvidsson as his wingers) year over year.
The coaching staff has good reason to make adjustments with the long play (playoff freshness) in mind. The top-end forward talent should deliver exceptional production even when getting the ice-time squeeze. Those extra minutes will be invested in the third line, and there lies some danger.
Advertisement The depth forwards The ‘reasonable expectations’ for Edmonton’s third and fourth lines are more minutes with limited offensive upside. The hope comes in the idea the bottom two lines can outscore opponents at five-on-five while continuing strong penalty-killing work. This is the most logical conclusion based on a second power play that does not include McDavid, Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins.
There is still plenty of offensive firepower in this group. It will be housed (mostly) on the third line. Adam Henrique will be a key player at even strength plus penalty kill.
He will also be a featured player on the second power-play unit. Evander Kane and Connor Brown have talent and should form a productive line with Henrique. Kane is an intimidating winger and a first-shot scorer.
The bet here is that he doesn’t see much playing time on the first or second lines, but he’ll have an offensive impact in 2024-25. Beyond the projected third line, there’s some concern for several older veterans who are expected to fill in on the depth lines. Corey Perry , Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark are unlikely to see the same kind of roster prominence they saw one year ago.
The signings of free agents like Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner close off those precious minutes with high-skill centres at the top of the roster. Holloway will emerge as an important player on this year’s roster. He could slide in on the fourth line (centre) or move up to the third line on the wing.
There’s an outside possibility Holloway could see some time on one of the top two lines if injuries hit. As it currently stands, that idea is a distant bell. Holloway has plus speed, and the bottom two lines are populated by slow boots.
He is one of the three younger players who must deliver when called upon this season. He’s a ‘next year’ player but based on his progression through junior, Matthew Savoie should be in the conversation. He is projected to see very little NHL ice this coming season.
Fans should expect explosive production when he arrives. It’s possible the organization gives in to temptation for a much longer opportunity than suggested in these numbers. Advertisement Noah Philp and Raphael Lavoie could surprise offensively, but even if the offence isn’t there, fans should expect them to play.
Philp is a RH centre and his contributions may be an emerging story in Edmonton this season. Defence Evan Bouchard is an impact NHL player who delivers exceptional offence and impacts outscoring at even strength. The rest of the defensive group is less impressive with the puck on their collective sticks, and fans should expect some regression from last season.
Edmonton’s offensive falloff from the defence this coming season will be partly a result of less ice time for these men with McDavid and Draisaitl. Additionally, as is the case with the forward group, there’s aging on the blue. Mattias Ekholm is 34 and Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak are past 30.
In fact, the Oilers defence enters the 2024-25 season with a top six featuring five men who are either 30 now or will turn 30 by the start of the 2025 playoffs. Experience has value, and veteran defencemen see their value increase in the playoffs. The skilled hands leave many defenders around this time, and Edmonton is vulnerable in this area (save Bouchard).
The second young player who is vital to this coming season is Broberg. He may land on his off side, on the second pairing with Darnell Nurse . If he can deliver in that difficult role, Edmonton’s defence comes into view and a championship is possible.
Broberg could be the single biggest story in Edmonton this winter. Overall offence Despite some performances that will not meet previous levels, the Oilers 2024-25 offence will be formidable. It’s a dead heat compared to the 2023-24 edition of the team: The redistribution of playing time shouldn’t impact overall offence, although the team will be less exciting in the final 45 seconds of any two-minute power play.
The second pairing (Nurse and Broberg likely) and the third line (Henrique, Brown, Kane) will see more time this season but will not score appreciably more. Advertisement The key to Edmonton’s season, goal suppression, is going to mean some adjustment for fans. Instead of winning 4-3 (Edmonton scored 325 goals and allowed 256 in the 2022-23 campaign), the organization is targeting 3-2 victories in 2024-25.
Goaltending The Oilers have waited for Stuart Skinner to mature, and the big man has been making solid progress over the last two seasons. He is the third young player who should be considered central to 2024-25 success. The organization should benefit from a more mature Skinner, and the goaltenders will benefit from a more structured and attentive group of skaters in front of them.
If the Oilers are serious about backing off the enormous minutes played by McDavid and Draisaitl this season, the team must be more devoted to shot and goal suppression. The key for the club will be deployment of the three defensive pairings. Ekholm and Bouchard are money on the top pairing, but they will be playing less with the top line and more with checkers and lesser offensive types.
The challenge will be cutting down on high-danger chances and making sure the puck is heading in a good direction. The second pairing is the major pressure point on this roster. If Nurse-Broberg clicks, Edmonton’s twin goals (less time for McDavid-Draisaitl and a more dependable defensive structure that can be duplicated in the postseason) will be achievable.
It hasn’t been talked about at length this summer, but a third pairing of Kulak and Ceci could be outstanding. Cap issues may come into play for the duo if Kane doesn’t hit LTIR, but a third pairing with miles of experience would be a welcome luxury for this club. Overall defence For an organization devoted to winning the Stanley Cup, relying less on McDavid-Draisaitl in an effort to keep them fresh all season is a novel idea.
It may be difficult to stay true to the mission statement. The prediction is a handsome plus-86 (297 goals for, 211 goals against) goal differential. That’s a 30-goal leap year over year.
Skinner, Broberg and Holloway need to spike in real time. This year’s reasonable expectations suggest all three will deliver. (Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images).
