If global warming is left largely unchecked, the number of Americans who succumb to extreme heat will triple by mid-century, new projections estimate. These deaths could affect poor and minority Americans much more than the white and better-off, according to a team led by Dr. Sameed Khatana of the University of Pennsylvania.
Rising temperatures will lead to a slight dip in deaths due to extreme cold , his team found, but triple-digit heat waves will more than offset that. "Overall extreme temperature–related deaths were projected to more than double or triple depending on the [carbon] emissions increase scenario analyzed," Khatana's team reported Sept. 20 in the journal JAMA Network Open .
A study published just last month found that U.S. heat-related deaths have risen sharply and steadily from 2016 through 2023.
"Heat-related illnesses, like heat exhaustion or heat stroke, happen when the body is not able to properly cool itself," according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention .
"While the body normally cools itself by sweating, during extreme heat, this might not be enough. In these cases, a person's body temperature rises faster than it can cool itself down. This can cause damage to the brain and other vital organs.
" In the new study, the UPenn team used data on all counties in the United States for past trends in deaths linked to extreme heat and cold. They then turned to "temperature projections from 20 climate models ," plus projections on changes in.
