Safety and immature technology are often cited as the main reason for the slow deployment of autonomous vehicles (AV). Fewer people may be familiar with another important challenge: AVs as robotaxis are wildly unprofitable. AV deployments are growing; albeit, at a slower rate than consumers expected.
Waymo operates the largest AV service in the U.S. with commercial operations in 4 cities and a total operating area of 462 square miles (315 in Phoenix, 47 in SF, 63 in LA, and 37 in Austin).
As impressive as Waymo’s capabilities are, their operating area represents a fraction of the 3.8 million square miles in the U.S.
This article lays out a simple model informing robotaxi profitability on a per vehicle basis. I assume vehicles only make revenue from fare collection and have five categories for operating costs: Vehicle Costs, Personnel, Charging, Insurance, and Maintenance & Repairs. The model suggests a $286K loss per vehicle over its useful life.
Revenue According to The RideShare Guy , a rideshare driver working 40-50 hours/week drives around 1,000 miles/week and makes up to $50/hour. Factoring downtime for maintenance, and charging, assume the AV works 100 hours/week and drives 2,000 miles/week. Yearly revenue would be: Revenue/Year = Hours Worked/Week * Average Revenue/Hour * 52 Weeks = 100 Hours/Week * $50/Hour * 52 Weeks = $260,000 Assuming an AV is extremely durable with a useful life of 300,000 miles , then the expected revenue over that time period would be calculat.
