This Halloween, shoppers can expect to pay more for Hershey and Mars candy bars. Cocoa prices have doubled since the start of 2024 — and prices of the sweet commodity are projected to remain high through at least September 2025 — according to Wells Fargo. Major producers of candy are also altering their products to rely less on the ingredient.
The banking giant’s Agri-Food Institute released a report this month detailing cocoa prices. The ingredient is at record highs because of changing weather patterns in West Africa, the crop’s main growing region, causing a decline in production. This year’s growing season was drier than anticipated, the report said, caused by the El Niño weather pattern and winds bringing dust to the region, which blocked light needed by cocoa bean pods to grow.
David Branch, sector manager at the Agri-Food Institute, said cocoa is different than other crops, in that it requires a very specific type of weather to produce. Therefore, producers are not able to keep up with the growing demand for chocolate without raising prices. “Warehouse stocks are at 50-year lows, they’ve been declining for the last 15 months.
The lower production has the market in turmoil, and as a result, we’ve seen futures prices just skyrocket over the last two years because chocolate demand, for cocoa flavors and confectionery, is still going up year-over-year,” Branch said. “It’s gotten pretty dire.” Cocoa production in the Ivory Coast is projected to be .
