When Labour gather in Liverpool today for the start of their conference - their first as a government in 14 years - they will hope they can put the last week behind them. Sir Keir Starmer and his top team have been bruised by the frockgate row and questions over freebies from donors. Over the last parliament, he accepted more than £100,000 of gifts.
Most damaging of all has been the revelation that the Prime Minister, his wife and senior members of his cabinet have taken thousands of pounds from long-time Labour supporter Lord Alli to spend on clothes. READ MORE: Starmer: Scotland's financial mess is SNP's responsibility Winter fuel payment protest as campaigners warn of impact Starmer acknowledges appeal of Scottish independence Cabinet ministers doing media rounds insisted it was important that the Prime Minister look his best when working for the British people. Nevertheless, on Friday, he was forced into a U-turn after coming under pressure from colleagues, and confirmed he would stop taking free clothes, though there are still questions over other gifts.
And then there’s the infighting in an increasingly dysfunctional No 10, with his warring aides constantly briefing the press against each other. It came to a head last week with the revelation by the BBC that Chief of Staff Sue Gray was on a salary of £170,000, more than Sir Keir. In a round of an interviews on Thursday, the PM insisted he was “completely in control.
” And then there’s the growing industrial crisis, with thousands of workers at Grangemouth, Port Talbot, Harland and Wolff set to lose their jobs. All this is before he even gets on to the economy and the “difficult choices” needed to plug the £22 billion "black hole" in the public finances Sir Keir and his Chancellor say has been left by the last Tory government. Fixing the country is like fixing a house, the Prime Minister told a group of Scottish journalists in No 10 earlier this month.
“If you find you got damp or a crack in your house or foundations, the temptation to paint over that is huge. “And I've seen politicians who over and over again, say here's the sunny uplands. We've already arrived.
I've painted the house. It looks beautiful. Look at that.
“[But then the] damp comes back, cracks come back worse than before and the foundations aren't secure.” This is why, he argues, he and his government need to make tough choices like scrapping the winter fuel payment and not scrapping the two-child benefit cap. It is why next month Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out a budget which, we have already been told, will be “painful” and will likely include some tax rises and spending cuts.
As anyone who has had to tackle damp or cracks in the foundations will know, these are big expensive jobs that take time. And while there may be four or four and a half years until the next general election , there are now only 19 months until the next Holyrood vote. Can the Prime Minister get the house fixed before Scotland chooses whether to stick with the SNP or change to Labour? Polling released this week — commissioned by Progress Scotland, the thinktank founded by the SNP’s Angus Robertson — suggested those difficult decisions were already leading some of those who backed the party in July to have regrets.
Asked how they would vote in a general election, 31% of Scots said Labour, down four points on the general election. Some 44% of Labour voters in Scotland think Sir Keir's government has "failed to meet expectations." A similar poll across the UK for YouGov poll found that one in seven of those who voted for Labour less than three months ago now regret doing so.
One SNP source described it as proof of “buyer’s remorse,” “It does put Anas Sarwar in quite a difficult position," Dr Coree Brown Swan, a lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling, tells The Herald on Sunday. “He would have probably hoped to go into 2026 with the SNP obviously severely wounded - both by self-inflicted and external events - with a message of hope and change. “And what we're seeing is quite a different message from the Labour Government at Westminster, that things are really going to get hard and that there are unpopular decisions which will have to be taken.
“That puts Scottish Labour into a difficult position. I don't think it's a position which will fatally impede their ability to win the next election, but it does make things more challenging, and it'd be interesting to see the dynamic between Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar at the conference and going forward.” The two men are, she says ideologically close.
“Personally, they seem to have a relationship. They seem to like each other, which has not always been the case between the Scottish and UK Labour leaders.” READ MORE: Poll: Scottish Labour's rating plummets after fuel row 52,700 young Scots economically inactive, Swinney told Opinion: What are you playing at, Anas Sarwar? Anas Sarwar must be the luckiest politician in Scotland Not only does 2024 mark the tenth anniversary of the independence referendum, it also marks the tenth anniversary of former leader Johan Lamont accusing colleagues in the party of trying to run Scotland “like a branch office of London.
” Have they managed to shake that label off? “I think so,” says Dr Brown Swan. “I think where that might come back is if there's another really unpopular decision taken, and it becomes difficult for Scottish Labour to answer for that decision and say, ‘Well, this is a UK-wide policy.’ (Image: PA) “I'm really struck how little of a honeymoon Keir Starmer has enjoyed, the Labour Government has enjoyed, it's quite remarkable,” Ken MacIntosh the former Labour MSP and Holyrood presiding Officer tells the Herald on Sunday.
“There was that wave of enthusiasm on election day and it lasted a little bit of summer, but there’s really not been much of a honeymoon.” Mr MacIntosh, who now works as an Associate Director at Arden Strategies, the influential lobbying firm run by former Labour minister Jim Murphy, points to that fundamental political truth uttered by James Carville, a senior aide to Bill Clinton. “It's the economy, stupid.
” He believes the public is willing to give the government “some time to turn things around.” “And there are big advantages in having a Labour Government at Westminster, which I'm sure Anas will make the most of. “There's the resources available.
I mean, simply having so many Labour MPs again, makes a huge difference in getting your message out, making sure you are heard. “That thing about being in permanent campaign mode, it's a big advantage having all these MPs around.” Alan Roden, a former communications director for Scottish Labour, says the party has to get better at explaining some of the tough decisions.
“The winter fuel payments policy has been uncomfortable for the party, and there’s a feeling that the argument about why some rich pensioners perhaps don’t need this money when public finances are in crisis hasn’t really been made,” he says. He argues that between now and 7 May 2026, there will be wins — thanks to policies like GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund — for Mr Sarwar and his colleagues to highlight. “There will be enough examples of ‘change’ for Labour to point to in 2026, even though the SNP will run a campaign claiming the exact opposite.
“Ultimately, Scottish Labour’s greatest strength going into the election will be Anas Sarwar’s energy and enthusiasm, rather than anything the UK party does or doesn’t do, while the SNP’s greatest challenge will be the performance of devolved public services.” Douglas Beattie, the author of How Labour wins (and why it loses), says Sir Keir and Mr Sarwar will need to be cautious. “Clearly the road to victory in 2024 for Labour ran through Scotland and the party again has enough MPs to fill a carriage on the Caledonian Sleeper.
However, Labour must take care not to burn up political goodwill north of the border. “Any perceived notion of incoming austerity framed around ‘tough choices’ and ‘fiscal rules’ is likely to play badly with Scottish voters at large, many of whom voted Labour as a result of Tory and SNP unpopularity. “Winning at Holyrood is crucial to Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar because it will help point the way to what they will hope is a second term with brighter political and economic horizons.
” The thing about damp — particularly for those who live in a flat or a semi-detached house — is that you often need to work with your neighbours. It will be much easier for the Prime Minister if the government next door is led by Anas Sarwar, but how long can he ask voters in Scotland to be patient?.
