California’s consumer confidence made a major U-turn in September, jumping to its highest level since February 2023 – a distinct bullishness compared to a sour national outlook. My trusty spreadsheet looked at the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tracking shopper psyches with polling in eight states including California and nationally. California confidence soared 25% in September, the 14th largest one-month increase in a yardstick that dates to 2007.
Revised data for August ranked statewide optimism as the lowest since July 2022. September’s surge put this index up 10% in a year. It’s also now 1% above the 2015-19 average – a reasonable measure of pre-pandemic normalcy.
Why the pop? Well, Golden Staters told the survey they feel much better about the current economy. The index’s “present situation” measurement jumped 32% in a month. the last time it was higher was 13 months ago.
Still the huge gain means it’s flat during the past year and it’s off 1% vs. 2015-19. Plus, the future looks brighter, too, by this California math.
The index’s “expectations” measurement hit a 30-month high after rising 18% higher in the month, 22% in a year, and 4% vs. 2015-19. This is definitely one of those California things.
Nationally, confidence was off 7% in September – the biggest one-month dip in three years. That left the index down 5% in a year, and 14% below 2015-19. And the seven other states tracked? No September gains can be found.
Look at the by the month’s dips – worst to least ...
18% lower in the month, off 13% in a year, and down 34% vs. 2015-19. 14% lower in month, off 11% in year, down 2% vs.
2015-19. 10% lower in month, off 12% in year, down 15% vs. 2015-19.
8% lower in month, off 12% in year, down 20% vs. 2015-19. 5% lower in month, up 15% in year, down 14% vs.
2015-19. 5% lower in month, off 8% in year, down 5% vs. 2015-19.
4% lower in month, off 11% in year, up 2% vs. 2015-19. How so? Perhaps it’s California’s job market, which is outpacing the nation and making locals feel better about their finances.
And the Golden Sate’s lofty home prices makes interest rates a big monetary factor. Did hopes for much cheaper mortgages make a difference? Related Articles.
