It is not going to be an eye opener for SkyNews.com.au readers that we are living in troubling and challenging times.
The pace with which the international geopolitical state of play fluctuates these days makes it difficult for strategists, policy planners and decision-makers to reflect accurately on what is going on. For some time, I have been highlighting the danger to Western leadership on the world stage posed by the Global South, and its interaction with the major counters to Russia and China. The recent Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, an annual Russia-held Asia-focused geo-economic international event, offered some clear insight into how Australia’s geopolitical neighborhood thinks about the current and future state of the international world order.
Malaysia’s charm offensive in Vladivostok You would have thought the US-led sanctions against Russia and the ongoing war over Ukraine would have deterred would-be allies of Vladimir Putin from turning up at the annual conference. Tell that to the international business figures from more than 40 nations who flew into the country’s far east for the annual investment forum. Moscow managed to secure agreements worth more than 10.
5 trillion rubles (US$117.5 billion, AUD$172.5 billion), more than at previous EEFs, in a major win for the Kremlin.
But more significantly was the geopolitical messaging, which inevitably follows the EEFs deliberations. This time the messaging came from Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was invited to deliver an international keynote address. Since Malaysia is an incoming chair of the Organisation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Mr Ibrahim’s remarks were worth paying attention to.
These were Mr Ibrahim’s key takeaways about Russia’s factor in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. “Russia is not just a strategic and economic reality that commands attention..
.. Russia’s pre-eminence stems not from military might or economic leverage, crucial as that may be, but from the enduring power of ideas, the beauty of artistic expression and an unwavering pursuit of knowledge,” he said.
“These achievements form the bedrock of the remarkable soft power earning Russia a place of global respect and admiration, influencing the hearts and minds of peoples around the world.” By highlighting Russia’s influence by means of soft power, Malaysia’s PM acknowledged Moscow’s niche place in the concert of major powers that complete for influence in the Indo-Pacific, a reality the West continues to dismiss. As the leader of a country in which the majority of the population practices Islam, Mr Ibrahim went further by discussing how Russia can connect more deeply with the Global South and its significant Muslim population.
This is a factor that cannot be dismissed by the West, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. It’s also music to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s ears. Reasons behind it Some sceptics may say that the Malaysian PM was simply being diplomatic and polite to his host, and that his remarks should not be taken seriously.
That would be an error of judgement. Mr Ibrahim’s praise for Russia could be interpreted as a reaction of the Global South (and yes, he did reflect the views of the grouping as a whole) to an ongoing internal upheaval in the west. The zigzagging presidential race in the United States is failing to show a clear leader, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump more or less locked in a stalemate to decide the next commander in chief.
Europe meanwhile continues to be shaken by the divide between ruling elites and the people on the streets. The race-related riots in the UK and the recent success of right-wing parties in Germany’s state elections are indicators of this divide. Then there’s the ongoing bloody conflict in the Middle East, which continues to act as a major irritator in relations between the Global South and the West.
Russia’s continued advance in Ukraine, despite the desperate efforts of the US and NATO to provide Kyiv with the means to resist - worth a staggering US$118 billion - gives another reason for leaders of the Global South to doubt the West’s global leadership. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky’s Kursk gamble has created a boomerang affect. Despite initial tactical success at the start of the Kursk incursion, the Ukrainian forces gained little compared to what they have lost since.
The Russian forces are capturing one to two settlements a day and are closing in on the strategically important towns of Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. Last week’s CNN report was blunt and to the point: “As the battlefield situation deteriorated, an increasing number of [Ukrainian] troops started to give up.” In this situation, the Global South looks at Moscow not as a geopolitical villain but as a resilient nation that can both withstand the hardest sanctions and confront a NATO-backed ally on the battlefield.
It’s a radical contrast to our thinking of Russia these days. Food for thought The Malaysian PM’s remarks should be taken seriously by Canberra - particularly his blunt statement about the changing international system. “The rise of the Global South does not signify merely a shift of economic power, but a reconfiguration of global influence,” he said.
We need to understand that many of our partners in the region may be friends with us, but they’re not enemies of our adversaries. Late last month, Australia and Indonesia signed a defence treaty to allow for greater co-operation in fields including maritime security and counter terrorism. As significant as it may be, we need to be mindful that Prabowo Subianto, the Minister for Defence of the Republic of Indonesia who signed this treaty, also pledged closer defence cooperation with Russia a few weeks prior.
By virtue of geography Australia finds itself at the doorstep of the Global South, with our key geopolitical and military allies thousands of miles away and busy with other issues. We must either continue our current strategic course while becoming more self-reliant, or we have to start accepting the new reality that I have outlined, as painful as it may be. Dr.
Alexey Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia..
