The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. Thursday morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin .
Eflin is one of many arms on their radar. Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde . USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend.
Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon , a Houston-area native. Both pitchers have performed like No. 3 caliber starters this season.
Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season.
After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15M free agent deal with the White Sox. It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters.
He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times.
His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong.
Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet , but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings. As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.
5M salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday.
There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control. Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.
96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.
1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.
5 mph. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year. Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts.
Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68M deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18M salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral.
If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return. Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation.
Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success. They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez , Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco . Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process.
Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.
The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.
That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces.
Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though. One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon.
Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256M.
Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257M mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20M above the $237M base threshold.
It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch. To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.
5M deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.
Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.
58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June.
He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work. Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater.
He’s playing on $11.5M salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.
This article first appeared on MLB Trade Rumors and was syndicated with permission..
