By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn The Winnipeg Jets will go as far as Connor Hellebuyck takes them. That’s what we said last year, bemoaning an otherwise average roster while praising one of the league’s premier goalies. It’s what we’re going to say again this year.

This is Hellebuyck’s team, and it turns out you can have a pretty damn good one with one of the absolute best goalies in the world at the helm. A career year certainly helps. It also means that the team is at the whim of the most volatile position in hockey, making its forecast far less stable than others in the same tier.

The projection Despite a 110-point season, the Jets’ preseason projection has managed to jump only 1.5 points compared to last year. Why? It’s a matter of viewing Hellebuyck as stronger than his forecast prior to the 2023-24 season — but regressing from last season’s actual total.

With a repeat, the Jets would be closer to a 102-point projection. Advertisement On top of that, the team around him looks slightly worse due to some offseason changes that serve as a modest downgrade relative to a season ago. Either way, it turns into the same story: Without Hellebuyck, this team isn’t that impressive and lands closer to 90 points.

The likelihood of repeating or bettering last year’s total sits at just 7 percent. A lot of Winnipeg’s success hinges on just how good Hellebuyck can be. Any step back from his already rosy forecast is bad news.

Just being solid pr.