Back when the Edmonton Oilers were truly awful, there were times when the underlying analytics numbers showed promise. In those years, there was a coaching or management change every summer, so any progress from one administration was long gone by the time the new group fashioned the roster to their tastes. Advertisement Fans grew tired of positive Corsi numbers and mocked Corsi Rel.
If the number was good, and the Oilers remained bad, how good was the stat? These long years later, some may have forgotten that good underlying numbers indicate a brighter future in the face of a bad stretch of Oilers hockey. Ladies and gentlemen, we are here. The record is poor, but the Corsi’s are dancing.
Are you ready? Predictions Despite a large group of fans who eschew the advanced math available to NHL fans, things like Corsi and expected goals can predict the future. Oilers fans need only look back to last season in order to see the indicators of regression during hard times. Here are the fancy stats before and after the firing of Jay Woodcroft one year ago.
Note that despite the turnaround in the standings (credit given mostly to the new coaching staff, led by Kris Knoblauch), the underlying numbers under Woodcroft suggested good times ahead. The boulevard of broken dreams for NHL coaches often contains numbers just like these. Woodcroft’s Oilers had basically the same positive indicators as the team managed under Knoblauch, but the puck luck doomed another young coach and did it fa.