(Bloomberg) — The last time Donald Trump was the US president, Vietnam reaped big benefits from the trade war he started with China. This time around the outcome could be different. Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 60% on Chinese goods in his second presidency, and duties of up to 20% for all imports from other countries.
While Vietnam waits to see what specific measures it faces, some economists warn it could be one of the hardest hit countries in Asia due to its ballooning trade surplus with the US and Trump’s determination to bring more manufacturing jobs back to the US. “We may see more pressure to impose tariffs on Vietnamese products and tighter monitoring of Vietnamese shipments to the US,” said Le Dang Doanh, an economist and former government adviser in Hanoi. “We may also see American manufacturers stepping up with complaints about dumping of Vietnamese products,” he added.
Since Donald Trump slapped higher tariffs on China in 2018, the Southeast Asian economy has forged ahead, attracting record foreign investment and emerging as a manufacturing powerhouse. Vietnam’s northern regions are now dotted with massive factories employing thousands of workers churning out electronics for Apple Inc. suppliers and other global brands, following Samsung Electronics Co.
and Intel Corp. which arrived in the country earlier. The country has boosted trade with the US over the past decade and now makes up more than a quarter of Vietnam’s total exports as o.