The United States unveils its monthly employment figures Friday –- a final major economic snapshot at the end of a razor-edge presidential election campaign in which cost-of-living issues have dominated voter concerns. The Labor Department's report on hiring and unemployment will be closely scrutinized by the teams of both candidates -- Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump -- but the numbers will be distorted by fallout from devastating hurricanes and a major strike. Unusually weak hiring numbers threaten to affect how Americans view the jobs market, some analysts warn.
The collective impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, alongside work stoppages by Boeing workers and others, could cut job growth by up to 100,000 roles, Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein said Wednesday. This means although a market consensus anticipates the world's biggest economy added 120,000 jobs in October, the uptick should be much larger. "The October jobs report will be muddied," said EY senior economist Lydia Boussour.
In the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey tracking hiring, workers on strike for the entire reference pay period are not counted as employed. Besides some 33,000 Boeing workers on strike in the Seattle area, others doing so included 5,000 machinists at Textron Aviation and 3,400 hotel workers, Boussour noted. Meanwhile, Hurricane Helene made landfall in late September -- meaning many were probably unable to return to work when the labor market survey was.