In the first 99 games this college football season, Unders paid out 58% of the time. So naturally, we’re targeting a shootout. We have a feisty underdog moving up in weight class as one of our two best bets this week.

Sam Houston at Central Florida (6:30 p.m. Eastern, ESPN+) If you have the cachet or the cold, hard cash, you can hit it big in the transfer portal and change your fortunes overnight with a five-star quarterback.

The Sam Houstons of the world don’t have the luxury of a NIL war chest to lure recruits, but they do have a veteran coaching staff with above-average talent evaluation skills. This past offseason, the BearKats brought in Jase Bauer from Central Michigan, a dual-threat who once ran for four touchdowns in a game against South Alabama. The expectation was that this signing would correct their offensive issues.

But head coach K.C. Keeler didn’t put all of his eggs in the Bauer basket.

He also scooped up a second-team All-American from the JUCO ranks. After fall camp came to a close, it was that JUCO passer, Hunter Watson, who had won the starting job. Last week, in his first FBS start, Watson threw for 229 yards, a pair of scores and added 57 yards on the ground.

The once-dreadful BearKats offense (20 ppg, 118th) suddenly had juice. His performance was enough to push Sam Houston past Rice as a double-digit underdog, securing a 34-14 road win. Now Keeler and his new quarterback take their show on the road for the second straight week.

This time they hea.