Just before I posted this piece, the former president gave a press conference. The questions weren’t as difficult as those he faced at last week’s convention of the National Association of Black Journalists, but if the current Theory of Trump is accurate, they aren’t going to help Donald Trump . They’re going to hurt him.

We should all be so lucky. The current Theory of Trump comes from Sarah Longwell. She’s the publisher of The Bulwark , a former Republican and a pollster.

She’s often on cable news talking about what swing voters want. Last week, after the NABJ’s interview, she said the more people see Trump, the lower his approval ratings are. The less they see, the higher they are.

That’s her Theory of Trump, and that should sound familiar to you. I have been saying for months that most people, most of the time, have not been paying attention to politics. That’s why the president’s approval rating has been so low relative to Trump’s.

Once he secured the GOP nomination, people would start paying attention, and when they did, I argued, Joe Biden’s approval rating would start to improve. It may not look like it, since the president is no longer in the running, but I was right – for about two days. On June 25, the polling average of the president’s approval rating eclipsed Trump’s for the first time this year.

(This is according to 538’s polling average tracker, and granted, it was low, about 40 percent.) But then came The Disaster Debate on Jun.