A tweet that recently went viral asked one simple question: “What’s your pet theory about the causes of birth rate decline?” The answers that came back varied wildly. “People everywhere have higher expectations for everything: their spouse, quality of life for kids, etc. it can really all be traced back to that.
” “Birth control + cost of living.” “People are too stressed, overworked, and more focused on careers and personal goals.” And, hilariously: “Men are mean and everything is too expensive.
” The immutable fact that people are having fewer babies is a subject that’s been steadily gaining attention. In the UK, the birth rate has been noticeably on the wane since 2010, with the average birth rate in England and Wales sinking to 1.49 children per woman in 2022 – the lowest rate on record.
It’s well below the so-called “replacement rate” of 2.1 children per woman, the number of babies needed in developed countries to maintain a steady population. But it’s not an issue peculiar to the UK; birth rates are falling the world over, other than in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Two-thirds of the world’s countries now have childbirth rates below the replacement rate. The issue is particularly pronounced in Southeast Asian countries: Taiwan, China, Thailand and Japan are all towards the bottom of the fertility table . There are two broad trends at work here, according to Prof Sarah Harper CBE, a professor of gerontology at the University of Oxford.
The first i.