The energy sector has suffered a drawdown alongside the broader equity market in the past few weeks. Its relative underperformance now appears overdone, with the ratios of energy sector benchmarks flashing counter-trend signals that are supportive of a relative rebound. Bounces in natural gas and WTI crude oil prices should contribute to improved relative performance.
The sector's tie to the energy commodities affords a relatively low correlation to the S & P 500, which is appealing given the potential for the seasonal correction to resume in the weeks ahead. In culling the sector for opportunities, we found Devon Energy (DVN) intriguing given its breakaway gap following a successful test of important support from January near $41. The gap has bullish short-term implications, and short-term momentum has improved per the daily MACD indicator and weekly stochastics.
DVN looks poised to test resistance defined by the cloud model (the shaded area on the charts). The approximate level is $49 on both the daily and weekly charts, a breakout above which would solidify a long-term turnaround on the chart for an intermediate-term objective of secondary resistance near $55, based on a Fibonacci retracement level. We would consider building relative exposure to the energy sector, as one beneficiary of the "big rotation" out of the megacaps.
In absolute terms, we would limit new long positions to stocks like DVN with positive technical catalysts. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access.