It should not be possible to sum up the entirety of a party conference – the atmosphere, the big themes, the rhythm and rapport of politicians and delegates alike – in a single poll finding. Nonetheless, YouGov has come close. Asked what they think is the main reason the party lost the 2024 general election, Tory members offer a varied range of suggestions.
Infighting and disunity come top, picked by 16 per cent of respondents, with failure to tackle immigration a close second on 12 per cent. Two things are clear from this poll. First, three months after the Conservative Party’s worst-ever defeat there is no consensus about what went wrong, with no answer garnering more than a sixth of the votes.
Second, immigration is deemed the main reason by three times as many members as thought Liz Truss and her mini-budget were the key culprit, and by four times as many as blamed Boris Johnson and Partygate. This assessment goes some way to explaining why the vibe here in Birmingham is so strange. As George wrote yesterday, this does not feel like the conference of a party that has just lost an election, let alone lost one so badly.
Giant banners bearing the faces of the four leadership contenders – Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat – hang from the conference hall ceiling like the flags of medieval knights. The mood is cheerful, upbeat even. Speaker after speaker, from the candidates to party grandee figures like Jeremy Hunt to former MPs who rece.