Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which causes fever and rash in young children, typically occur in the summer months. Similarly, historic cases of polio were observed in the summer months in the United States. Both diseases are caused by different species of enteroviruses, a large genus of RNA viruses.
However, the drivers of the seasonal patterns of these diseases have remained somewhat unclear. A common set of drivers can explain the timing of outbreaks of both HFMD and polio according a recent study by researchers at Brown University, Princeton University and Johns Hopkins, published on July 31 in Nature Communications. Further, these summertime outbreaks may hint at implications for climate change.
We find, even after controlling for other factors, that temperature appears to increase enterovirus transmission. Crucially, we see a similar sized effect for polio historically, and more recent enteroviruses serotypes that cause HFMD." Rachel Baker, first author, the John and Elizabeth Irving Family Assistant Professor Climate and Health at Brown University "Enterovirus outbreaks exhibit clear patterns over space," noted co-author Saki Takahashi, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University who has previously studied the outbreak dynamics of enteroviruses in both China and Japan.
"At higher latitudes we see large outbreaks of HFMD every two or three years, but closer to the tropics we observe outbreaks twice a year – our results are able t.