olar power continues to break record after record. If solar continues its current 5-year compound growth rate of , then by the end of 2046, it could be supplying at 2023 levels. By 2050, we could more than double our energy consumption globally and solar will still be generating more than we need.
This year, around , and 70 billion of their constituent solar cells, will be manufactured around the world, mostly in China. It is the repetitive modular manufacturing process that has lent itself to the rapid efficiency improvements and cost reductions— —underpinning solar’s near-exponential growth. In 2009, the International Energy Agency predicted total installed solar power capacity would hit 244 GW in 2030.
That target was met 14 years early, in 2016, and the total today is —over six times the 2030 forecast. The modular nature of solar panels make for efficient manufacturing. But it is also ideal for small scale deployment, including on our homes.
Globally, more than now have decentralized solar on their roofs. By 2030, this is likely to exceed 100 million, according to the IEA, though its forecasts have undersold solar before. So, could we up this forecast to 200 million, 500 million, or even 1 billion solar powered households by the end of decade? Here come the caveats.
While the growth rate of deploying solar has been phenomenal, we must remember the first commercial solar farm was completed in California over 40 years ago, in 1982. In any near-exponential growth, th.