There’s a lot of buzz around whether to start or sit a rookie QB for their first season. Anecdotally, it’s easier to remember the good cases than the bad. Everyone knows how Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers sat, but Rex Grossman also sat the majority of his rookie season before fading into football obscurity.
This person went through and found all the quarterbacks that sat the majority of their rookie season, and let’s look at what the data can show us. To Start or to Sit Rookie QBs The Data Using CBS Sports’ list of how QBs have worked out for their teams over the years, any mixed result or higher was considered a “hit” for their team. For clarity, Fields is a miss because even if he hits in Pittsburgh, it was a miss for the Chicago Bears.
Incomplete results were omitted (so no 2023 QBs were included). Using this set, there have been 33 QBs selected in the first round since 2012, and seven sat their rookie year while 26 started nine or more games. Using the mixed result or higher, 11/26 QBs thrown into immediate action are considered hits.
Three sitting quarterbacks hit out of the seven in the set. Sit Your Rookie QB The Chiefs sat Mahomes behind Alex Smith and then paired him with Andy Reid, a good coach by almost every mark. Watson was a hit for the Texans until his off the field saga and trade occurred.
Lamar Jackson is the perfect AFC North QB, with rushing ability that makes even the fiercest defenses a tad concerned. However, Trey Lance sat for a season th.