Sicknote Britain even sicker than thought: Number on long-term illness benefits 'underestimated by 250,000' READ MORE: Brits on long-term sick leave earn MORE than part time workers By Sam Merriman, Social Affairs Correspondent Published: 13:35 EDT, 29 October 2024 | Updated: 13:48 EDT, 29 October 2024 e-mail 12 View comments The Government is underestimating the number of Brits on sickness benefits by more than a quarter of a million people, according to a leading think tank. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a £2billion welfare 'black hole' because officials have consistently underestimated the huge rise in people claiming incapacity benefits, the Centre for Social Justice said. The think tank said its analysis of Department for Work and Pensions projections over a ten-year period found officials underestimated future claimant numbers by an average of 255,000.
There are now more than 9.25 million economically inactive — those not in work and not looking for a job — working age adults in Britain, highlighting the scale of the nation's sicknote culture. Of this figure, more than three million are claiming incapacity benefits — up by 800,000 since the pandemic — and this is expected to hit 3.
8 million by the end of this parliament. CSJ said that if the average underestimate of 255,000 is added to the current forecasts, the number of people claiming sickness benefits could exceed four million by the end of this parliament. This would see more than a million additional peo.