If Gerrit Cole were a free agent, would the New York Yankees sign him to a five-year, $180 million deal covering his ages 34 to 38 seasons? In a vacuum, the answer probably is no. The Yankees, though, are not operating in a vacuum as they ponder whether to void Cole’s decision to opt out by adding another $36 million year on his contract, a determination they must make by Monday night. Advertisement So while the rational decision seemingly would be for the Yankees to decline committing to Cole for his age-38 season and send him hurtling into free agency, it would be an upset if that was their actual move.

If the Yankees lose Cole, their 2025 rotation would be down to Carlos Rodón , Clarke Schmidt , Luis Gil , Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman . And while the free-agent market is deep in top starting pitchers, from Corbin Burnes to Blake Snell to Max Fried, all come with their own questions, as pitchers always do. Cole has been a Yankee for five seasons.

Their doctors have unique insight into the condition of his arm. As long as they believe Cole is not necessarily headed for a major elbow injury, he is probably as safe a bet as anyone they could sign in free agency or grab in a trade. The reputation of Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner also plays into this.

Only the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers carried higher payrolls than the Yankees last season, but a perception exists — mostly among fans, but even among some in the industry — that Steinbrenner should spend mor.