Climate change is having a massive global impact on dengue transmission, accounting for 19% of the current dengue burden, with a potential to spark an additional 40%-60% spike by 2050 -; and by as much as 150%-200% in some areas -; according to a new study presented today at the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH). The findings from researchers at Stanford and Harvard Universities offer the most definitive evidence to date that climate change is a big factor driving a global surge in the mosquito-borne disease. Countries in the Americas alone have recorded almost 12 million cases in 2024 compared to 4.
6 million in 2023, and locally acquired infections have been reported in California and Florida. The study also carries warnings of even sharper increases to come. We looked at data on dengue incidence and climate variation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections.
It's evidence that climate change already has become a significant threat to human health and, for dengue in particular, our data suggests the impact could get much worse." Erin Mordecai, PhD, an infectious disease ecologist at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment and the study's senior author While some dengue infections produce only mild symptoms, others cause excruciating joint pain (earning dengue the nickname "breakbone fever"), and severe cases can le.