The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has led to severe humanitarian crises, including widespread food shortages. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, an estimated 11 million Ukrainians-;about one-third of the population-;were at risk of hunger in 2023. This crisis, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and extreme weather events, could increase diabetes prevalence not only in Ukraine but globally, argue Peter Klimek and Stefan Thurner from the Complexity Science Hub in a commentary published in the journal Science .
Malnutrition during early pregnancy is known to elevate diabetes risk later in life. With 187,000 children born in Ukraine in 2023, Klimek and Thurner suggest that the current diabetes prevalence rate of 7.1% could result in an additional 13,000 to 19,000 cases of diabetes in this birth cohort alone.
Global impact Globally, the disruption of crucial food exports due to the conflict has pushed an estimated 23 million people into hunger. Considering other supply chain interruptions and weather-related shocks, projections suggest that up to 122 million more people could suffer from hunger compared to 2019. "This could potentially lead to up to 180,000 additional Type 2 diabetes cases worldwide," the researchers say.
They caution that while these estimates are not intended to be quantitative predictions, they do underscore the profound and often overlooked-;especially indirect-;effects of geopolitical events on public health. Ukraine – a key.