Qatar National Bank (QNB) expected that growth in volumes of trade to continue to recover, increasing to 3.2 percent in 2025, from an expected 2.8 percent this year, amid positive leading trade indicators, aggressive economic stimulus measures in China, and the policy interest rate cutting cycles in advanced economies.
In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "International trade has displayed extraordinary volatility in recent years. After the sharp collapse in trade volumes in 2020 resulting from the Covid-pandemic, a strong rebound took place in 2021 as the pandemic gradually receded and the global economy began to progressively reopen. Afterwards, a challenging environment emerged amid rising interest rates, high inflation, and geopolitical instability.
These negative conditions resulted in a sharp deceleration of trade activity in 2022, which was even more disappointing in 2023, displaying a highly unusual contraction. During the last 40 years, a contraction in real trade volumes had only been recorded in 2009 as an aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), and in 2020 with the dramatic disruptions caused by the Covid-pandemic. "While some of the headwinds remain relevant today, including a challenging geopolitical environment fraught with protectionism and logistical disruptions, a moderate recovery began to take place in 2024.
In our view, although global trade growth will remain below the long-term pre-Covid pandemic average, the recovery is set to continue in 2025. .